The Rudd Government has today committed to reduce Australia's carbon pollution by 25 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020 if the world agrees to an ambitious global deal to stabilise levels of CO2 equivalent at 450 parts per million.
This new commitment follows extensive consultation with environment advocates on the best way to maximise Australia's contribution to an ambitious outcome in international negotiations at Copenhagen this December.
If the world achieves this agreement, Australia will meet this 25 per cent target by harnessing the CPRS, the expanded Renewable Energy Target, and with substantial investment in clean, renewable energy and energy efficiency and strategic investment in carbon capture and storage.
Up to 5 percentage points of this target could be met by purchasing international credits, such as avoided deforestation credits, using CPRS revenue no earlier than 2015.
In the White Paper, the Rudd Government emphasised clearly that an ambitious agreement to stabilise levels of CO2 equivalent at 450 parts per million or lower would be squarely in Australia's national interest.
At that time, we committed Australia to playing its full and fair part in an agreement, but assessed prospects for such an ambitious deal in the near term were challenging.
Since then, international developments have improved prospects.
The Obama administration has already injected a great deal of confidence in the process through its unambiguous commitment to play a leading role in global efforts to limit climate change.
President Obama has reinforced his election commitments to mid and long term carbon pollution reduction goals and to introduce an emissions trading system similar to the CPRS.
His Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate is helping drive progress in UN negotiations for a global agreement.
The United Kingdom has also recently announced a strengthening of its 2020 target for reducing carbon pollution.
Nevertheless, achieving an ambitious global agreement will still be very tough.
It will require a significant further shift in negotiating dynamics so that all advanced and major developing economies take serious action to restrain and then reduce emissions.
The Government will retain its White Paper target range of:
* an unconditional commitment to reduce carbon pollution by 5 per cent by 2020; and
* a commitment to reduce carbon pollution by 15 per cent by 2020 if there is an agreement where major developing economies commit to substantially restrain emissions and advanced economies take on commitments comparable to Australia's.
A Ratification Review will be established in addition to the Joint Standing Committee on Treaties (JSCOT) Process to assess whether the terms of any global agreement meet the conditions set out for Australia to adopt the 25 per cent target.
Should the world achieve this ambitious agreement, the Government would seek a new election mandate for increased 2050 targets.
Crucially, this new target reinforces the need to secure passage of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme this year.
Australia cannot responsibly sign up to targets without a means to deliver them.
The attached documents set out the conditionality for Australia's targets and the terms of the Ratification Review.
Target at 2020
Conditions
Indicative date Australia achieves 25% below 2000 levels
NOTE: In the following ‘advanced economies'refers to Annex 1 parties to the UNFCCC and at least some other high/middle income economies; ‘major developing economies'refers to non-Annex 1 members of the Major Economies Forum.
5%
None
2034
15%
International agreement where major developing economiescommit to substantially restrain emissions and advanced economiestake on commitments comparable to Australia's (i.e. White Paper conditions)
In practice this implies:
* global action on track to stabilisation between 510-540ppm CO2-e;
* advanced economy reductions in aggregate, in the range of 15 - 25% below 1990 levels;
* substantive measurable, reportable and verifiable commitments and actions by major developing economies, in the context of a strong international financing and technology cooperation framework, but which may not deliver significant emissions reductions until after 2020;
* progress toward inclusion of forests (REDD) and the land sector, deeper and broader carbon markets, low carbon development pathways.
2024
25%
(up to 5 percentage points through Government purchase)
Comprehensive global action capable of stabilising CO2-e concentrations at 450ppm CO2-e or lower. This requires a clear pathway to achieving an early global peak in total emissions, with major developing economiesslowing the growth and then reducing their emissions, advanced economies taking on reductions and commitments comparable to Australia, and access to the full range of international abatement opportunities through a broad and functioning international market in carbon credits.
This would involve :
* comprehensive coverage of gases, sources and sectors, with inclusion of forests (REDD) and the land sector (including soil carbon initiatives (e.g. bio char) if scientifically demonstrated) in the agreement;
* clear global trajectory, where the sum of all economies' commitments is consistent with 450ppm CO2-e or lower, and with a nominated early deadline year for peak global emissions not later than 2020;
* advanced economy reductions, in aggregate, of at least 25% below 1990 levels by 2020;
* major developing economy commitments to slow growth and to then reduce their absolute level of emissions over time, with a collective reduction of at least 20% below business-as-usual by 2020 and a nomination of a peaking year for individual major developing economies;
* global action which mobilises greater financial resources, including from major developing economies, and results in fully functional global carbon markets.
2020
RATIFICATION REVIEW
Purpose: To assess whether any international agreement satisfies the conditions under which Australia should reduce emissions by 25% by 2020 as part of global action to achieve a target of 450 parts per million or lower:
* The Government establishes an independent review panel (with broad membership but including appropriate economic and scientific expertise) which conducts public hearings as to whether the conditionality set out by the Government is met.
* The Review reports to Government which is required to table its response along with the Review report in Parliament within 90 days.
* As part of the cap setting process under the CPRS, and after the above Review, the Government then proposes caps and gateways consistent with the pathway for Australia to reach its target by 2020 which is submitted to Parliament as a disallowable instrument.
* While not part of the CPRS, were the Government to decide to fund the purchase of international permits from auction revenue it would take this into account in setting the Scheme caps
* If an ambitious international agreement is reached, the case for EITE assistance is significantly reduced and an EITE assistance review would be triggered immediately.