E&OE……………………………………………………………………………………….
PEACOCK:
Prime Minister, it looks like the end for President Habibie. Was it East Timor, do you think, that did it?
PRIME MINISTER:
No, I don’t believe so. I think there are other reasons why his accountability speech was rejected. I don’t believe in the final result his position on East Timor, which it should be said was praiseworthy because he did give the people of that territory a say to determine their own future. I don’t think that was the crucial factor. I think there were particularly domestic factors, probably the perception of him as being close to the former President, the fact that he’d been appointed Vice President by President Soeharto, all of those things probably weighed more heavily on the minds of people in the Assembly. And bear in mind also that the result of the election left the Golkar Party, of which he was the candidate in the ballot, or was going to be the candidate in the ballot, left the Golkar Party in a minority. So, whilst East Timor may have been part of it I don’t think that was a dominant factor.
PEACOCK:
Is Megawati the likely successor? I mean, she did win the most seats, would you assume that she’d…
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, I don’t assume anything about the politics of another country and it’s a matter for the Indonesians to decide. Looking at it now, the mail we get is that she will probably succeed but you can’t be certain about that. But that certainly does represent the indication at the moment. She does lead the major party. Obviously her election would be popular with the public of Indonesia. Whether that is the dominant factor in the end is really a matter for them.
PEACOCK:
And what would it mean for Australia, for example, we just heard she cried for East Timor leaving Indonesia?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, I think it would mean a new era in our relationship. Bear in mind that if she does become President or whoever becomes President out of this process really will be the most democratically elected leader that Indonesia’s had since it became independent in the 1940s. Now, that of itself represents a new beginning and of itself, in an institutional way, it brings us closer to Indonesia. You’ve got to remember that when you share with a country a fundamentally democratic process in choosing government then you have a lot in common with that country. And it will remove, in the relationship between Australia and Indonesia, it will in one stroke remove one of the constraints that I think has always been there in that whatever judgement people make on Soeharto and Habibie and Sukano the reality is that for the past 40 odd years – 30 odd years – you’ve had a very authoritarian system of government.
PEACOCK:
So you’d see a more or less immediate improvement in our relationship once…
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, I would believe that once the East Timor thing has been resolved – and East Timor has now been resolved in the sense that the body Parliament has voted for independence, I mean, there are some consequential steps but they will follow last night’s vote as a matter of course. Now that it has been resolved I think you will start to see a return to a more stable relationship. It was always going to be difficult because of the role that Australia played in putting together the multinational peace enforcement group that went into East Timor. That was always going to cause tensions but for reasons I’ve outlined that was the right thing and the thing that we had to do as a country and has had wide support in the international community. Now that the cut has occurred, the break has occurred, and East Timor is to separate then I think you will see an improvement in the relationship but it will take time and we shouldn’t imagine it’s going to be easy.
PEACOCK:
And that always assumes that Indonesia will respect East Timor’s territorial sovereignty.
PRIME MINISTER:
Of course it does. I believe the Indonesians will do that. Now, I could be proved wrong but I don’t think there’s any great appetite within the rest of Indonesia to stay terribly concerned about or involved in East Timor. It is, after all, a very small country. There are a lot of other challenges within the Indonesian republic and my view is that it will fade from memory for most Indonesians fairly quickly.
PEACOCK:
And, of course, we’re there at the moment with INTERFET but the boot on the other foot, how prepared will Australia be to underwrite East Timor’s territorial integrity?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, we’re certainly prepared to give the new independent State of East Timor help, not alone, mind you, the rest of the world will have to join us. And I think it’s also important that Indonesia, Australia and the newly emerging independent State of East Timor all understand that we have to live together forever in this part of the world. And however hard it is for many of the East Timorese to embrace the concept, working more closely with Indonesia is the way of the future. Now, that will take a great act of, I guess, forgiveness and reconciliation on the part of many but in the long run if that country, that newly emerging country, is to succeed then it does need to understand that it’s got to work with Indonesia.
PEACOCK:
But after your meeting with Xanana Gusmao the other day you’re confident that he’s got it within him to pursue that process well.
PRIME MINISTER:
He understands that, yes he does. I was impressed with him. As a man, as a leader, he obviously has an appeal to his people. He will be a very dedicated, conscientious leader but he will face a tremendous task. I mean, it’s fewer than a million people. It will be very poor. It will have no infrastructure. It will be starting virtually from scratch.
PEACOCK:
What is the timetable? This is almost day one, isn’t it?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, there’s a further transitional stage and then you go through a period of United Nations’ control and administration and really it’s up to the United Nations to work all of that out. Because what happens as a result of the formal processes within Indonesia is that control is handed to the United Nations and then the United Nations have to work out all the administrative and constitutional steps that are needed.
PEACOCK:
And it will cease to be INTERFET, it will become a United Nations’ peacekeeping force.
PRIME MINISTER:
Yes, it will.
PEACOCK:
But in material terms, that won’t affect our bill very much, will it, it’s still coming from the UN but we’re still putting in a lot of the money?
PRIME MINISTER:
Yes, it will, over time, reduce our bill, our military bill, because there’ll be a greater contribution from others proportionately. But we’ll still be required to make quite a contribution. And, of course, apart from the military cost there’s also the obligation that we so clearly will have to provide assistance to help the newly emerging State.
PEACOCK:
And all of that’s going to cost Australians and sacrifices are going to be made, as you’ve said. What will that mean, does that mean tax cuts are at risk, the surplus is at risk or there are going to be more cuts to services and, as you’ve already pointed out, there are pockets in Australia, rural Australia particularly, that don’t like that very much?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, I think I’ve indicated before, Matt, that there is an extra cost and when we have a reasonably clear picture, which will be fairly soon, then I’ll be in a better position, the Government will be in a better position to give an indication of that obviously.
PEACOCK:
What’s your inclination at the moment?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, my inclination is to say nothing at the moment. Obviously because we are in a strong financial position it’s not as big a load to carry as it might otherwise have been. If we were dealing with this problem from a position of a large budget deficit then we would be in a much weaker position and the cost of it would be a lot heavier.
PEACOCK:
But, I mean, the Treasurer’s ruled out touching the surplus. You’ve ruled out changes in terms of education other than spending more money. It seems the options are narrowing for you.
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, as I say, when I’m in a position to do so I’ll say more on the subject.
PEACOCK:
But you wouldn’t say that the surplus is necessarily sacrosanct in an emergency like this.
PRIME MINISTER:
When I’m in a position to say more on the subject I will.
PEACOCK:
Prime Minister, a quick question about business tax. Would you prefer to see a deal with Labor or Meg Lees? By inclination one assumes you’d rather preserve your relationship with the Democrats, would you?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, I want a deal or an understanding that is in the best interests of Australia and if that can be delivered via either of those channels, well, I’ll be happy. I don’t have a preference. Obviously I’ve found working with the Democrats in recent months very satisfactory. We don’t agree on a lot of things but I think we start from expectations about agreement being fairly modest and the fact that we have been able to reach agreement on a number of things bodes well for their common-sense and, I hope, also speaks something of our capacity to negotiate and compromise in a sensible way.
PEACOCK:
Now, we have less than three weeks ‘til the great republic referendum. I know you’ve not been keen ostensibly to play a leading role although I’m told you are playing somewhat of a role on the telephone behind the scenes occasionally but…
PRIME MINISTER:
Really?
PEACOCK:
So I hear but what I’d like to…
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, I’m fascinated to know what you’ve heard, Matt. Tell me, tell me more.
PEACOCK:
Well, I’d like you to tell me what sort of…
PRIME MINISTER:
No, well, I mean, I don’t think you really do know much. I think you’re trying to…Matt, look, I’m interested in this subject and I’ve said that as we get a bit closer I’ll have a few things to say explaining why I think the present, very stable and workable constitutional arrangements should be preserved.
PEACOCK:
Do you share your Foreign Minister’s view that to change to a republic would jeopardise our relationship in Asia?
PRIME MINISTER:
Look, I’ve said before, when I say something on this it will be John Howard’s view. This is a free vote and that freedom goes right up to the top and it means that when I explain why I’m voting no the explanation I give doesn’t have to tally with the explanation of other people who are voting no any more than the reasons given by some of my friends and colleagues who are voting yes has to correspond with the views given by others who are voting yes. I’ll be giving, I’ll be explaining in my own words, my own language, according to my own sense of history and understanding of how this country has evolved why I think it would be unwise to put aside a constitutional arrangement that has kept this country one of the very few countries to be continuously democratic this century and why we are really are, in terms of our functioning democracy, the envy of the world.
PEACOCK:
Prime Minister, thanks for joining us.
PRIME MINISTER:
Pleasure.
[Ends]