Opening address to IISS/SDSC Conference "The New Security Agenda in the Asia-Pacific Region" Parliament House, 1 May 1996
Chairman, Professsor Bob O'Neill, Professor Paul Dibb
Congratulate the ANU's Strategic Defence Studies centre on its 30th anniversary.
The Centre has played a significant role in promoting debate on a broad range security issues through conferences such as this and through the links it has established with like-minded
organisations in regional and other nations.
Delighted that the international Institute for Strategic Studies is co-hosting this conference
First time that it has done so in australia demonstrates the close ties with our friends in the United Kingdom
Welcome speakers at this conference fom Australia
Also warmly welcome our visiting guest speakers from overseas
GLOBAL IMPORTANCE OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION
IISS involvement in this conference reflects the importance of the Asia-Pacific region to world affairs
Economically: the Asia-Pacific region, as defined by APEC, constitutes about 60 per cent of the worlds GDP
APECSs share of world trade increased from 34 per cent in 1970 to nearly 50 per cent in 1994 - most of the increase due to the export performance of east asian economies
It's no accident that the Director-General of the World Trade Organisation-the wto will have visited this region at least three times by the enji of this year and that the WTO ministerial meeting is to be held in Singapore at the end of the year.
If growth can be sustained, by 2020 APEC will contain seven of the world's top ten economies based on purchasing power parity and APEC will account for nearly 75 percent of the world's production and trade
The region will be a principal source if growth in world demand, the main destination for global investment
If only for these reasons, Europeans and others others have an important interest in the stability of the Asia-Pacific region
But we also know from our own experience this century that security is indivisible
Despite the end of the cold war this mains no less true
war in Eeurope or the Middle East can have global ramifications
so would conflict in Asia
Strategic developments in this region therefore merit Europe's close attention
CHANGE IN THE REGION - BENEFITS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
the scale of change in the region is huge we are witnessing tectonic shifts in economic and strategic relationships
Economic growth has been the principal engine of change: in China growth has averaged 10 per cent per annum for more than a decade, Koreas's about 8.5 per cent for a decade, in Taiwan, Hong Kong and
South East Asia the story has been similar
The end of the cold war has quickened the pace of change
Such growth inevitably produces enormous strategic change and pressures
But it is unequivocally a good thing
20 years or so ago, China had just beg to emerge from economic devastation
Thailand's stability was threatened by communist insurgency, as was even more recently the Philippines
Soviet competition with the United States was a source of tension, delaying economic development and political opening up
US confidence was shaken by the Vietnam war, and its will to engage was doubted in the region
India's potential was stymied by cold war confrontation
The changes that have happened have overwhelmingly been beneficial for the lives of the people in the region, for political stability and for the world as a whole
One of the important features of growth within the region has been the degree of regional integration it has fostered
This is an influential factor for stability
Intra-regional trade has grown from 55 per cent in 1980 to over 70 per cent in 1994 - higher than in Europe.
ECONOMIC CHALLENGES
It is in the interest of the region and the rest of the world that growth continues: the region remains an important, if not the most important source of growth in world demand.
But growth at the same rate will not be easy
Markets will have to be kept open; huge amounts of capital will be necessary to meet infrastructure challenges in energy and transport
Fuelling growth will present issues of security of supply and the environment
Demand for skilled labour, population movements and urbanisation present new problems.
In helping meet these challenges APEC has an important role and my government will do what it can to strengthen it.
while APEC is an economic body, its role in sustaining growth and supporting economic integration can make an invaluable strategic contribution .
STRATEGIC CHALLENGES
We cannot simply assume that rational economic decision-making will prevail
even if we could that does not necessarily imply stability
New problems emerge even as interdependence grows, for example over trade access,intellectual property and human rights
Political change and greater prosperity mean new external-oriented rather than internal roles for defence forces, modernisation and more sophisticated weaponry
Nationalism, ethnic tensions, territorial disputes did not disappear with the end of the Cold War.
Circumstances can change very quickly: the unpredictable does happen
Korea and Taiwan remain sources of tension and possibly major confrontation
In such an environment, it is not surprising and sensible that the focus of strategies such as yourselves has been on the new strategic pressures and uncertainties that economic growth creates
through changing the relativities of power among the United States, Japan, China and Korea.
These particular relationships will largely determine the future strategic shape and stability of the region
Attention often focuses on china because of its size and the territorial issues that remain to be resolved
My view is that it is an undeniably good thing for China and for the rest of us that China's economy has opened up and grown at the rate it has
It is in our interest that China shoulid articipate in the world economy and have a stake in the stability of the region
It is important therefore that we build constructive relationships with China.
It is equally important that china sees its own interests lying in removing uncertainties, building stability and strengthening regional and global institutions
We cannot for example afford to have a major economy like china's outside the WTD.
Equally china needs to understand that it too will benefit from membership and so needs to reach an understanding on terms of entry that is acceptable to the wider world community
ROLE OF THE UNITED STATES
Much is said about the nature of US engagement in the region
My view is that it is central to the stability of the region
I am confident about it, but we should not take it for granted
Economic growth in the region invites US engagement
And the United States understands the importance of security if that growth is to continue
The United States reiterated its commitment to maintaining a forward presence in the region in its East Asia strategy last year
The US response to the challenges posed by the North Korean nuclear program, the reaffirmation of strategic interest in freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, and the response to tensions
over Taiwan are important signals of the United States' appreciation of the stake it has in the region
Most recently, the joint declaraticion on security by President Clinton and the Prime Minister of Japan, Mr Hashimoto, provided a welcome e affirmation of the Japanese alliance
It is in the region's interests to support the United States' presence in the region
The Japanese-USus declaration underlined the very substantial contribution that makes to the security of the region
My government is committed to reinvigorating Australia's alliance with the United States and supporting US regional engagement
AUSTRALIA'S ROLE
Want to conclude with some comments on the role of Australia and the approach of my government
Will be brief as my colleagues, the Defence Minister and the Foreign Minister, will address you later
I do not want to exaggerate the role that Australia can play
Neither should it be underestimated
Australia's size and location, its advanced and diverse economy, the steadiness of its purpose and policy directions, and its own defence capacities are important to the prosperity and stability of
the region
The ANZUS alliance and Australia's web of understandings with regional partners - the security agreement with Indonesia, the five power defence arrangements with Malaysia and Singapore, the joint declaration of princliples with Papua New Guinea and closer defence relations with New Zealand - are important elements in the region's security structure ,
By and large australian governments of both political persuasions have shared approaches on Foreign Policy and security issues
There will be strong elements of continuity especially in the priority that Australia has traditionally given to the Asia-Pacific region.
But some differences of emphasis will be visible
The first requirement if Australia is to continue to benefit from growth in the region and contribute to regional stability is its own economic health
Structural reform, especially of areas affecting our international competitiveness, is my top priority
The government is committed to strengthening its defence relationships and dialogue with countries in South East Asia and North Asia
The government is also committed to participating in and strengthening multilateral pproaches to security, especially the ASEAN regional forum which is developing into an important forum for dialogue and confidence building
An effective defence force is vital for Australia's own defence and an important contribution to regional stability
My government has committed itself to improve the operational capability of the defence force
Finally, in a world where domestic and external issues impact so readily on each other the need has never been more apparent for coordination of our defence, trade and foreign policies along with our
domestic policies
To help achieve this my government has established a National Security Committee of Cabinet which will engage the responsible ministers.
CONCLUSION
thank you for the invitation to open your conference
I wish you fruitful and enjoyable discussions.