( D aC ' 4 C
PRIME MINISTER
TRANSCRIPT OF THE PRIM1E MINISTER, THE HION P. J. KEATING, MP
DOORSTOP, CORAL BEACH HOTEL, PAPHOS, SATURDAY,
23 OCTOBER 1993
E& OE PROOF COPY
J: Prime Minister, how seriously do you think the French are going to take this
delegation the Commonwealth is going to send?
PM: There are a couple of francophone countries in it and I think it is representing
all of the Commonwealth Heads of Government and Commonwealth countries,
so they are going to have to consider it. It a measure of the weight of
international opinion for a successful conclusion of the Round. I think that all
the parties here are going to need to give that little extra bit of ground that it is
going to take to get the agreement to bed it has, after all been seven years in
the doing.
J: If this pressure does not work, if this final fling a 5 it were doesn't work, is there
anywhere else to go?
PM: I think that we are pursuing our own efforts through the Cairns Group with the
United States and also speaking directly to Europe. So, I'd say it is coming at
three directions that is the US themselves, pre~ sure from the United States in
collaboration with the UK and Germany; another stream coming through the
Cairns Group and perhaps another now with the Commonwealth.
J: Why should cities like London and Washington be included on the mission
agenda and cities like Dublin not?
PM: Because I think that the key ones here are probably Paris and Bonn and
Washington is there because its part of the negotiation. as is Geneva.
J: But they're already on side, I mean London and Washington.
PM: I know, but it is quite a complex negotiation this. There are little bits and
pieces in the services packages and the intellectual property rights packages
that other people are arguing over.
J: In our terms, what does success and failure meani for Australia?
PM: In round terms it means about $ 70 billion ta the agricultural commodity
producers world wide and we have a substanfial piece of that. It is worth
about $ 200 billion in international terms the saiccess of the Uruguay Round.
It is the most important backdrop that we can have now to all these economies
rejoining the world economy the old Soviet Union, the Commonwealth of
Independent States coming back into the world cconomy for the first time since
1914; India; China; South America to have this great change in the world
economy, something which we have not seen in the post-war years it should
be there with a backdrop that covers goods and services and intellectual
property and agriculture. Without that, the risk is there will be a slide back into
protectionism and back into blocks and it s',-ems that so much has been
accomplished there is just that little bit extra to 1go to get an agreement.
J: Prime Minister Major has talked of world wi slump, world wide growth in
unemployment, what is at stake for Australia in 1 hose sorts of terms?
PM: I think the world is in a recovery mode after now three years in recession or
two and a half years in recession, but there is no doubt that the velocity of
trade and the impetus to trade and investment coming from a successful
conclusion of the Uruguay Round would be very profound. I think the world is
growing again; the US is growing again, Japan is about to turn, Europe is still
quite flat, but the Uruguay Round would certainly add some impetus to that.
J: Prime Minister, you wrote a letter to the Frencf. Prime Minister, Mr Balladur a
few weeks ago, I remember you telling us on the last trip. Did you get a reply
from that and what did he say?
PM: Yes, we had a reply, but it was a reply saying that there had to be a balance of
interests, it had to be comprehensive and balanced and, of course,
comprehension and balance is all in the eye of the beholder.
J: In your discussions last night with the Prime Minister of Malaysia, had you
succeeded in bringing him any closer to the way that you are thinking on
APEC?
PM: It is not a matter of me succeeding. I had the oipportunity to talk to him about
what we see as APEC's opportunities and how that in his terms multilateral ising
US interests in the Pacific and Japanese intere~. ts in the Pacific is not only for
the interests of the Asia-pacific countries, but Malaysia as well. I think the
Prime Minister took the conversation in good spirits and I really enjoyed it.
J: Mr Keating, do you think most Australians rea ly appreciate the importance of
the end of the GATT round or understand it?
PM: It has been in the news for so long now, I don't know whether people just give
a gigantic yawn about it, but there is no doubi: that this deadline December
is the final deadline in the seven years. Thi!; is the end of the US fast track
legislation given to President Clinton by the Congress; this is the last legislation
they can tie a deal up under. So this is it De,-ember 15 is 54 days away and
we have got 54 days to get a major internationi1 trade service and agricultural
agreement to conclusion.
J: Can you spell out what it would mean, what failure would mean, to the average
Australian?
PM: What it wkill mean I think, is that the improvement in our international income
from agriculture and potentially from service,, and goods would over time,
substantially constrain Australian incomes from what they would otherwise be
if there were a set of background rules. In Australia's terms, we are doing
some other things. We are also covering off ithat contingency by developing
APEC, but APEC can be a GATT plus outcome, that is the GATT overlay plus
APEC or in some way it can substitute by becoming a freer trade area, but the
best result is to get the general international backdrop in, to get GATT
concluded.
J: Would this renewed Commonwealth emphasis on trade, do you see that
affecting the fu~ ture direction of the Commonwealth, how do you see that
going?
PM: No, I thought it was a fairly healthy argument and discussion. That is, that for
many years now the Commonwealth has focussed on South Africa and played a
quite decisive role in a resolution of the impasse in South Africa and as I
suggested today, I hope in a couple of years time we will see a South African
democratically elected Head of State here at a Commonwealth conference. But
as that issue is abated in Commonwealth terms, the Commonwealth is picking
up other issues of interest to member countriesand of course, GATT and trade
and incomes is an obvious one.
J: So is the Commonwealth increasing its value to Australia?
PM: I think the Commonwealth provides the opportunity of being a very large and
representative group of countries and were the Commonwealth not to exist
how would such a group of countries meet? Why would they meet? And the
strength which has been drawn from them just wouldn't be available. We
would be left to other fora like the United Nations et cetera. And it has been
particularly useful on a number of issues or South Africa and in a lot of
technical issues in education for young peopl.!; an environmental policy and
maybe now with a GATT.
J: But how useful have you found this discussions i: oday in the retreat?
PM: Useful enough. Today there was a discussion about the mechanics of this
who would represent the Commonwealth and what capitals would be visited
and then we had a discussion about Cameroon's entry into membership of the
Commonwealth and that took up all of today's discussions, to this time.
J: What are the human rights concerns about Camneroon at the moment, that the
Aficans were putting up today?
PM: There wasn't much put up by way of a constraint upon Cameroon joining, just
saying that lets prima facie decide that they should join in two years time
provided that in the interim, they continue on the path of improvement in the
general conduct of their society starting with, of course, the elections which
they have had and where we have seen some multi-party elections et cetera.
So, I think it is left on the basis that if there is any broad objection to
Cameroon joining in two years time then that may disqualify, them.
J: Prime Minister, on the matter of you meeting with Dr Mahathir, do you think
you have now established the basis of a reasonmble relationship with him, it has
been a bit rocky over the years?
PM: My discussions with Prime Minister Mahathir were very pleasant indeed. He
has arrived at a number of positions on various things of interest to his country,
he is thoughtful and I hope he thought that Australia has thoughtful, well
worked through positions as well and we had a chance to talk about some of
those and I think that was a good opportunity another reason why the
Commonwealth is quite a useful body.
J: You have got a grand vision for APEC, is it still a concern though that Dr
Mahathir is still unconvinced and cautious about APEC?
PM: I think we would like everybody to be embracing it as enthusiastically as
possible, but nevertheless his thoughts are running in the same direction as ours
that is, he is supporting the GATT, he is supporting multi-lateral solutions
and he is supporting freer trade.
J: Has the Government done projections for the effect on growth, the effect on
unemployment, the effect on other economic ar.-as for Australia if GATT fails?
PM: No, no, it is not a matter of GATT failing. If GATT fails then the world will
just rattle through without, and I mean rattle through, without a proper and
sensible backdrop in trading rules and that would be a great shame and a time
when the world economy has the potential to & row so much. Now, the World
Bank and the OECD did a study which concluded that international world GDP
would be improved by about $ 210 billion if the GATT succeeds. Now, of that,
commodities represented about $ 70 billion and Australia would have a share of
that.
J: But have you done projections on what effect il would have for Australians?
PM: No.
J: If the Uruguay Round actually failed, you ' iave spoken about the world
breaking into blocks where does Australia fit i: 1to that scenario?
PM: I don't think we should assume at this stage that it is going to fail or that people
would break into blocks. I think there will be a great resistance on the part of
many countries not to see the areas they live become exclusive areas, to
become blocks, but basically open and free trade areas. Therefore if GATT
were to fail not compound the problem by seeing their trading areas become
blocks, become exclusive areas of trade. I think there is a lot of understanding
about the dangers of this and the best way, of course, is to make the GATT
succeed.
J: With Dr Mahathir's continual reticence, does that put extra pressure on this
meeting with President Soeharto to try and get s; upport?
PM: No. Everyone doesn't have to agree with everything for things to be valuable
and worthwhile.
J: But you do need a significant supporter in ASEAN?
PM: Yes, and that has been so. We have had that to date and that has been
appreciated, but we still are at the stage in our we are always nevertheless
tolerant of other peoples views, even if they don't agree with us on some of
these things.
J: Prime Mnister, did you try to persuade Dr Mahathir to come to Seattle?
PM: No, I didn't. We were just talking about trade, the Pacific, trading entities,
multilateralism. and a few things of interest to Australia.
J: You've suggested that APEC turns into an Asi a-Pacific economic community,
Dr Mahathir didn't sound particularly enthusiast . c about that this morning, what
is your timetable for that? Do you actually have one?
PM: No, I don't, but I think that it is very likely that at the Heads of Government
meeting that the acronym may change from economic co-operation to
economic community. APEC first envisaged was like a mini OECD an
information sharing, policy focussed organisation. What I think it may become
is a device for pro-active liberalisation of trade which is taking it a step further.
J At this Leaders Summit?
PM: I think so. I think we will get an endorsement of those sorts of directions at
this Leaders Summit.
J: Could you say why you didn't raise the Seattle question to Dr Mahathir?
6
PM: No, no, because I know his view. It is not a matter of me trying to corral him
or to pressure him, he is entitled to his view. You can't expect everybody to
agree with you on these matters.
J: Are reciprocal visits between you and Dr Mahathir next year now a done deal
do you think?
PM: I think so. We haven't arranged any times, but I think that will happen.
ends