PIRIME MINISTER
TRANSCRIPT OP THE ] PRIME MINISTER, THE HON P J KEATING, MP
DOORSTOP, MELBOURNE, 17 MARCH 1992
E& OE PROOF COPY
PM: Well there have been plenty of reasons i~ n the last 12
months why people could have been pessimistic and
entitled to be pessimistic and gloomy about the economy.
But that's not true today, not true of these numbers in
the National Accounts. We are entitled to be confident
that the economty is on the turn, that there's hope
there, and that' every person who is interested in a
recovery should. welcome the numbers today.
J: Is 0.3 enough?
PM: The fact is that it's turning and it's positive and It's
coming off the previous couple of quarters so it looks
as though there is every reason, as I say, to be
confident and to be. hopeful about the economy.
J: Dr Hewson says that there aren't improvements in the
areas that count such as business investment.
PM: Anyone who doesn't welcome these numbers today,
including Dr Hewson' is not saying things which will
welcome or induce a recovery.
J: Is it possible that' we could Blip back into a negative
situation?
PM: I think the trend ovrer the period and the fact now that
interest rates have, been down low for a very long period
of time will help and, as well as that, now, of course,
we've got the added' chemistry of the One Nation
Statement. These changes reflect the December quarter.
We believed when we brought One Nation down that we were
going to add to the impetus coming out of the December
quarter and spur growth in the economy over the course
of the year. I think now the chemistry of the One
Nation Statement will have that effect. it will take
that momentum and push it on and have its own impact on
the economy. People should remember that while One
Nation was presented a few weeks ago, and in terms of
the newspapers has gone into the history of the writing
of it, its impact is yet to be felt, and will be felt
-2-
through the course of this year and, in particular, in
the next half year.
J: Business inves~ tment is still poor, when are we going to
see atn improvement there in terms of broader recovery?
PM, It's confidence that matters and it is GDP and growth
which will bring confidence around, and it's that which
will change the whole ambience of the economy. These
numbers are a cause now for some confidence and some
hope.
J: Is there need for further stimulus to get a more rapid
effect on unemtployment?
PM: No, I think the Government has judged it about right
with the One Nation Statement, the impetus which we
thought it needed, the stimulus which we thought it
needed and I think these numbers make that point for us,
that it will push activity along, push growth along and
push employment along. The people who were saying that
it was overdoing it at the time, have now got some cause
for reflection.
J: any hope thaet unemployment won't hit 10.75 per cent,
the forecast high?
PM: These numbers would be consistent with the forecast
which are included in the One Nation Statement and let's
hope we do better than 10.75.
J; Dr H-ewson is talking about 11.25.
* PM; Dr Hewson has got to be very careful about hie gloomy
comments. I mean does he want a recovery or does he
not? Does he weant to spoil the game for all
Australians?
J: But does he havea a point that perhaps the growth isn't
in the right areas?
PM: Come on, growth is growth. GDP and employment are tied
together, if GDP picks up, growth picks up and
employment picks up.
J: Mr Keating, is the recession over?
PM: The economy is -obviously turning. It's clearly turning
now and that's -the important thing. It is its
direction, and, as I say, with the extra impetus of One
Nation, that fiscal package and those changes coming
through, plus the bulilt-in momentum from the changes to
monetary policy., all of that is going to have its
positive impact on the economy.
ENDS