ARTICLE FOR THE 10TH ANNIVERSARY ISSUE OF
" THE AUSTRALIAN" -JULY 1974.
WHAT FUTURE FOR AUSTRALIA?
BY THE PRIME MINISTER, THE HON. E. G.-WHITLAM, M. P.
In accepting The Australian's invitation to forecast the
political and social trends of the next ten years, I must begin
with a note of caution.' Special pleading and wishful thinking
make politicians notoriously unreliable prophets.-Who would
have predicted, when The Australian w~ as launched ten years ago.'
the chronic political instability that was to follow the
retirement of Sir Robert Menzies? Who would have foreseen the
continuing rise of the D. L. P. and, more recently, its even more
sudden and extraordinary demise? Who would have predicted,
only 18 months ago, that a democratically elected Government,
comfortably. installed with a working majority after 23 years
in opposition, would be driven to the pqlls again half-way
through its term, with important sections of its program
under challenge?
I do not wish to begin on too partisan a note. My point
is simply that of all human activities, politics is the least
predictable. Compared with the changes we have s'ten in Australia,
the changes on the world scale in the past ten years have been
incomparably more vast and far-reaching. Traditional forms of
democratic government'are under challenge. The growth of world
population, the depletion of the earth's natura. resources, man's
new awareness of environmental hazards, rising crime rates,
growing pollution,' greater civil and industrial unrest, worldwide
inflation, a rising tendency to alienation and job dissatisfaction
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in industrial societies, and a growing recourse to violence as a
political weapon all have compelled politicians to look afresh
at their methods and priorities.
Australia, however, is still happily insulated from many
of the evils and neuroses afflicting other nations. That may
seem an oddly complacent view to anyone who values internationalism;
nevertheless, I take some comfort from it. There is a steadiness,
an equanimity, a fundamental decency and good sense in our makeup
that enables Us to look ahead with some confidence in our judgement
and some faith in our power to do good. We are better placed than
most nations to withstand the effects of any general economic or
social hardship on a global scale. We are one of the few countries
whose material and agricultural resources would make us self-sufficient
in a global emergency. I do not for a moment suggest that
self-sufficiency should be an aim of Australian policy; and
it is true that our isolation has often deprived us of much that
is good. I am inclined to believe, however, that in a world
racked by uncertainty y3Lv iolence and mindless fanticism, the
S advantages of our limited isolation still tend to outweigh the
ills. For these reasons, therefore, I am an optimist -though a
rather anxious one. I retain the humanist's belief in progress,
in man's innate tendency to self-improvement. I retain the
democrat's belief that this tendency is best directed through
the forms of a free and open society. I retain the parliamentarian's
belief that free societies are best governed through a two-party
system, where the rights and procedures of open debate are reposed
in elected legislatures.
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In short,,, I believe that, in the absence of nuclear war,
worldwide depression or a major environmental catastrophe,
Australia will rc amn one of the world's more fortunate nations.
I expect a steady rise in her standards of living and a more
equitable sharing of the material benefits and opportunities of
advanced civilisation. I see these conditions, not so much as
ends in themselves, but as the essential pre-requisites for a
fuller life. Real poverty is a poverty of the spirit; real
riches consist in the enjoyment of non-material rewards, in
the intellecttal, artistic and cultural opportunities available
to free minds cultivated by a rational system of education.
I believe) therefore, that party politics in the next ten
years will be increasingly concerned with improvements in
social and living standards. The debate will be not so much
about whether change is desirable, but abgut the rate of change.
This, indeed, is already happening. The traditional conservative
parties will'be driven increasingly to accept the legitimate
aspirations of free people for greater opportunities, greater
equality, greater material security and higher standards of
living. In other words, I see a steady shift to the left; and I
believe that such a shift has been the dominant feature of
democratic politics in the west since the end of World War II.
Such a shift, of course, is accelerated by the election of
radical) reformist. or left-of-centre governments. I have no doubt,
for example, that our opponents have adopted more enlightened
policies as a result of Labor's victories in 1972 and 1974.
I believe the greatest danger in left-wing governments is their
tendency to authoritarianism, and the greater danger in democratic
conservative governments is their tendency to complacency.
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I have no doubt that the main problem for the Australian
economy in the next 10 years will be the worldwide growth of
inflation. It seems to me that growing populations, diminishing
resources and ever-rising material expectations make a
measure of inflation inevitable. Provided we devise machinery
to protect the weaker members of society, and provided the burdens
of sacrifice are fairly shared, it may be that the world will learn
to live with inflation on a higher scale than it has known in the
past. This does not mean that strong measures will not be needed
to check inflation from time to time.
I expect the Australian economy to become increasingly
mixed; that is to say, the management of our resources will be
more equally divided between government and private enterprise.
Governments including local government, will be expected to provide
more and more services sometimes because, private enterprise finds
them unprofitable but more often because they have not in the past
been provided at all. I believe private corporations will be
submitted increasingly to public supervision in the interests
Sof the nation as a whole, and that many of the abuses of
unrestrained free enterprise will be checked. I have no doubt
that the benefits of an advanced welfare state are fully
compatible with those of an efficient and flourishing private
sector. To my mind, capitalism is the best means yet devised for
producing the material goods required by advanced societies;
I therefore believe in free enterprise. At the same time, there
can be no question that the injustices and inequalities of such
societies must be redressed by government intervention; and
for that reason I am a democratic socialist.
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I believe Australia will continue to live at peace with
her neighbours aijl the world for the foreseeable future. I accept
the advice of oui experts that no military threat is likely to
Australia in the next 15 years. The same advice was given to our
predecessors and accepted by them. I believe the next decade will
see Australian politics further liberated from their old,
stultifying preoccupation with ideological conflicts and cold war
attitudes. Such a prospect is wholly encouraging. Australia will
be better placed to play her natural role in Asia as a concerned,
generous and enlightened neighbour.
0 I do not envisage any dramatic increase in our, present
population, and indeed I would not wish to see one. On the
other hand, I expect to see a number of new cities well established
in provincial regions during the next ten years or at least
the confident beginnings of such cities. I expect vast improvements
in our roads and railways, new child care centres and health
centres, better hospitals and schools and improved standards of
public and private housing. I believe that in 10 years we will
O have fully accepted our responsibilities to the deprived and
weaker sections of the community, and that the Aboriginal people
of Australia will enjoy a new dignity and security.
These assessments rest on the assumption that the major
reforms undertaken by the present Government will be irreversible,
and that even if the conservative parties are returned to power,
there will be a continuing popular consencus in-favour of
progressive policies.
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In a world of totalitarian regimes and minority governments,
such confidence may prove to be misplaced. I base it, however,
on my expressed faith in the maturity and intelligence of the
Australian electorate. I do not claim for the left a monopoly of
wisdom and virtue, but I see in the Australian people a degree
of sophistication and discernment that will lead them instinctively
to political solutions founded in fair play, in justice, in
moderation, and, I trust, in idealism.
I look ahead to a society whose democratic foundations,
nurtured in a political climate uniquely free of hysteria and
' dogmatism, will be strengthened and refined. I believe the next.
ten years will bring a fuller sense of national pride and purpose,
a determination to preserve the national estate and maintain
Australian control of our industries and resources. I believe
we will cultivate a more mature and distinctive Australian identity,
a m6re vigorous climate in the arts, and a generation of young
Australians determined to reject all that is shoddy and spurious,
second-rate and second-hand, whether at home or abroad. It may well
be that these hopes for a sound democracy, for a proud peop le
equipped to lead their lives to the full in security and peace,
will1 not be realised in my lifetime. I cannot believe, however,
that such a goal is beyond our means or beyond our abilities, or
that the creation of a model society, an example to the world,
is too lofty a vision for a strong and united people.
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