PRIME MINISTER
SPEECH NOTES BY THE PRIME MINISTER, THE HON P J KEATING MP
PRIME MINISTER'S WELCOME LUNCH FOR MEMBERS OF
THE CANBERRA COMMISSION, MONDAY 22 JANUARY 1996
ADMIRALTY HOUSE, SYDNEY
* May I begin by formally thanking each of you for accepting my invitation
to join this Canberra Commission on the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons
0 I am very conscious of how busy you are, and far you have come to
participate in this meeting
I am very grateful to you
0 However, I am sure from your presence here that you all agree there can
be few comimitments more worth making than this
I would not have set up this Commiission or asked you to take part if I
did not believe your combined efforts will1 be able to make a
significant contribution to one of the most pressing issues facing the
international community
that is, how the world can remove the threat of nuclear weapons
weapons of mass destruction so powerful that their use could
destroy our civilization
The Australian Government begins from what seems to us to be the
unarguable proposition that the world would be a better, safer, saner
place without such weapons
that is, if they did not exist
* But we have them and only three possibilities follow from that:
first, that they will be used
second, that they will not be used but will be managed forever by
wise, prudent and well-meaning governments and military forces
or, third, that somehow we can agree to eliminate them
* The first possibility offers catastrophe to the human race
T he second requires us to make assumptions about the future which run
completely counter to logic and experience
-because if there is one thing of which we can be utterly confident, it
is that the present relatively benign global situation in which only five
countries have declared nuclear weapons, and are unlikely to use
them offensively, will not obtain forever
far more probable over time is the emergence of a more
fractured, dangerous, world in which the restraints which have
governed the strategic outlook since these weapons were
invented no longer apply, and the possession of such weapons
proliferates more generally to other states and possibly even
beyond state control
* That leaves only the third possibility
that somehow we begin, with care and caution and a clear-eyed
sense of all the difficulties it involves, to move to eliminate such
weapons completely
* That is a massively difficult task and the Australian Government is not
naive about it
we have no illusions about the technical difficulties of solving the
central problems of verification
and we acknowledge the political problems involved: uncertainty
about the future and the accretion of fifty years of nuclear doctrine
nor do we imagine that a world without nuclear weapons will be a
world without conflict
so serious issues of security also need to be addressed along
with the technical and diplomatic issues
3
So it is in pursuit of that third possibility,-what seemrs to us to be the
only real option for the world that we have invited you to join this
Commission Because if the aim of a world without nuclear weapons is ever to be
realised the issue has to be placed more firmly and centrally on the
international agenda
if that does not happen, we will inevitably see the familiar
allowed to drift unchallenged into the future
so that objective to ensure that this issue is widely debated,
and in depth Is one of the aims of this Commission
But if that debate is to move ahead, the onus is on those favouring
abolition to provide practical and serious ideas about how it can be done
-and, most importantly, how it can be done in a way which actually
enhances global security
That Is the other reason for establishing the Commission
It is why we have invited all of you from differentt backgrounds and
different approaches to participate in it
you bring to this task, collectively and individually, an unmatched
experience in statesmanship, in nuclear and scientific issues, in
diplomacy and in strategic analysis
we are convinced that if any group can address these issues in a
fresh, persuasive and unconventional way, it exists here in this room
We are not looking for easy statements of principle in your report, or for
words which are agreed for the sake of getting agreement
* what we hope for is that you will come to grips with the hardest, and
most intractable issues, and show how these must be addressed
Many of you have spent much of your professional lives engaged with
these Issues and I don't intend to offer you advice now about them
But I do want to say something about " why now?" and " why here in
Australia?
0 In Singapore last week, I gave a speech in which I said that it seemed to
me that we were living through the greatest period of change in the
world since the emergence of the nation state
The end of the Cold War has freed up the global system in an
unprecedented and unexpected way
0 What comes next is very uncertain but it will not be uncertain for long
0 Within a very short time, the world will adjust and settle into new
grooves, from which it will be very difficult to dislodge it
0 But for the time being we have an unparalleled opportunity and an
unprecedented responsibility to look afresh at what have seemed to be
intractable problems
9 And, of these, possibly the most intractable has been the threat of
nuclear weapons
0 When the Cold War ended, most people in the world breathed a sigh of
relief and assumed that the nightmare of the nuclear threat had
disappeared along with the Berlin Wall
-the strength of the international reaction to the French Government's
decision to lift its moratorium on nuclear testing stemmed in large
measure from this unexpected and unwelcome reminder of a danger
which many people assumed had passed
We in Australia believed it was important for all countries to focus
attention not just on the symptom continued nuclear testing by France
and China but on this larger cause
Why should Australia be involved in an exercise like this?
we are not a nuclear power
we are geographically distant from the major areas of nuclear tension
and we are an old and committed ally of the United Sates and have
benefitted from the protection of extended deterrence
The answer is that we are convinced that in the new international
environment our security and the security of our friends, as well as the
people of the world at large, will be better served if we can eliminate
nuclear weapons, as we have moved to eliminate other weapons of mass
destruction
9 Australia does not have any proprietorial or exclusive interest in nuclear
disarmament or any preconceived outcome in mind from the deliberations of this
group * because if progress is to be made and I believe it can be it will be
by the combined and relentless efforts of many governments and
groups and individuals
-not just expressing by our hopes and fears, but by coming to grips
rigorously with all the difficult issues involved
1 am convinced the time is right and, of course, the people are right
for the Canberra Commission to make a major intellectual and political
contribution to this work
6 Gareth Evans, personally, and the Australian Department of Foreign
Affairs and Trade, including Ambassador Richard Butler, the convenor of
this Commission, have a long record of achievement on global and
regional arms control issues, Including their contribution to the
conclusion of the Chemnical Weapons Convention and the work on the
CTBT They will be ready, through your Secretariat, to give you whatever
assistance you require
a Let me end by again expressing my personal thanks to all of you for your
participation in the Commission and let me welcome you formally to
Australia
ends.