X) A'JEJ: U8L1Y11 1982
SUBJECT: IN! T E: T\' 1 L WI1' lffl' 1 PflIXflb 1: liR,
CARLTON': There is a lot to talk aboiit on the politicatl
. Scene at. tile irozv( nt obviously thje Ifa~ xk. e/
H-ayden row, thle Ivranium dciision by the ALI"
rc-deiai Conference-yesterday, and thtj economy
with prospects as gloomy as they have beer,
. in a long vh~ ile, both for b-. usiness anti for
labour wvith untimployment lik~ ely to rise. Let.' s
look at all those questions and pertiaps a feu
mtore, w~ ith the Primbe flinist. vr. Good tmorn4. ng.
Thanks for joining vs.
Good raorning.
ChRLTOfl.; PM: CARLTON: Primre Minister, I would lith. to go through a~
w~ hole lot. + of questions wvith you brut. I cannot
resist starting with the obvious, Have you
anything to Eay on the Iaydc-n/ Hawke issue?
H~ o except. thtYL I think it is probably Irrelevant.
H~ OW do you ILEan?
V~ ell I do not think i t. ma'tters,
CARL'tON: It does not trattc-r Nvbo lead,$ the Labor Party,
you can still beat. them?
Yes.
CARL'ON: Pit: CARLTON: CARL'rON: Is there a certain delicious irony in watching
Mr. Jlauke do to It. r. Bayden wbat. Andrew Peacock
tried to do to you?
Oh I do 4ot thinU so because, you itnow, frc'w
the m~ oment Mr. flauke came into the Parliament
he wvas bound to try and tmake a grab and it was
only a question of seeing \, hen it would be.
14m. And it has core sooner perhaps, rather
than later?
Oh I think from him~ he m~ aybe have exhibited a
fair aiwunt. of patience already.
( LAUGHS) Allx-ight. They think apparently, or
M~ r. Hawke's thinking, is that he can lead
. Labor to victory against-you but t-hat far, Bayder
cannot. Do you see it that way?
Itell -I do not really want to ccomment on it all
that muQch. I do not know that. it. would inake
m~ uch dg.& ference and that is vhy I think it is
irrelevant. If you have read the FINAN~ CIAL
REVIEW this m~ raing I think that if M~ r. H1awke
did becomie Leader you would start. Lo find more
articles, like the one on that being written. 14, N
TR ANSCA I PT; TBL MIKE CARLTON KORB'IN-6, PA1110 2GB, SYNNEY.
PM-E:
Page 2
CA1IL'fN: IN 1( ht -the cult of personality, that sort of
t h irng?
) NO) no, there Xuas just. an artcle, pretty
Solidly written, that % wa. quiestio~ ning % zhether
Ucr. Hauke vas Primwt M~ inisterial1 material and
auggesting very strungly that he vas -not. 1kAu
I think That w~ st people in the media have in
one sense left him alone because, you knowo
he has not been in that position. lie has just
been a private Itember of Par Ii amtent
CAflLTOU: CARLTO: IN CacLTON CAR~ LTON: But I really do not think it inatters, all. that
much, I really do not.
Allright chariszatic perhaps but not Prime
Ministerial material. Would you agree with thal
Viell charisrmtic does not always-trake good
PrImre M~ inisterial material. but that is not
necessarily a conrmnt on M~ r. 1iavke.
Yes. I think Mr. Hayden might. agree with you
on That lot. ( LAUGHS)
Oh there are some things I do agree with M~ r.
Hayden about. You rlght be surprised.
And do -ou share a similar opinion of Ur. Hawke" l
Pit: CARLTON:. PH: CARLTOX.: PH: CARLTO4 PHi: I have not spoken to him about it in depth.
I do not think you would know wrhat I thought -of
Yes, allright. We will leave it there if you
like. I would like to get dowa to one of the
issues discussed yesterday at that Labor.
Conference -their apparent softening of-the
Labor line on uranium. How do you see that?.
Well do you think it is a softening of a line
to promise aomebody that you are not going
strangle him quickly, you are only going' to
strangle him slovly?
Which would you prefer?
Yeah, I & ee whiat you mean but the Left Ving is
saying that 11we were sold out, that vwe cannot
cut the uranium Industry off immeiately it vie
get to Goveraceat". It does seem to be a
softening to that extent, doesn't it?
Welrl'if you regard that as a sof tening would yov
like me to read you a cuple of words from the
Resolution? J-
7
Page
CA1L'rON: Pbl: CARLTON: PM: CARLTON: PH C A RLT UN
2q pM: CARLTON: Yes Sure.
An ALP Government would give a total co=-itmen
to preventing sty nevi mines being developed and,
also another bit " our ni ium position vould b
total, unequivocal cozoitment to phaI~ e outI
Australia's Involvemeat in the uranium iadustrY
So the only difference is, you know, one was
chopping it off, pushing sozebody off the gang-l
plank, the present policy Is phasing It out.
Nocw nobody knaws how, under uhat circumstances]
over vihat periosd the phase out process voild I
take. But that is,. you know, that. Is the only
significant difference.
Mm So it uould still be# In your view, a.
Labor Governmrent would still be the death kzel
for the uraniua industry in this: country?
The Resolution says. very plainly that that is
what it is,
No new mines, phasing out all existing involved
In the industry. That is, you knowx, those w. or 41
are very clear I think.
Allright. 1iou i= portant do you see that a's an
electioh issue? Is it one that you would be
anxious to pursue in the next F'ederal election
whenever that is?
Well.. a good part of it goes to tbe credibility
of Australia as a trading partner, as a place
In which to Invest. People have put their
dollars out to develop uranium mines in good
faith. Ice are moving into a very harsh,-.
competitive world where there Is a very real
recession in countries overseas and there are
cany much, much worse that Australia and, in
those circucmstances, we want Australia to be.
an attractive place, you knou, for people to.
inveat In and the kind of behaviour that would i
be required under this Resolution on uranium,
* you know; investors would look on that in a
pretty uncomplizentary way and they would say
to themselves " well If Australia is prepared
to do that In relation to uranium is it
prepxred to act In that way In relation to,
other investgmentst other activities".
so you are saying It increfses the uncertainty
of what a Labor Government would der with
foreign investoent generally? .4
CARLTWN PM4: CARLTON PM: Yes I thinh it vizeuld. Arid at P. time uhert
the world mas v'ery ccupetitive alid very
dittilt and e-speci:: tlly at a timce xwhen Y; WE
have done a nuvlber ot things to' 6amage
0,. jrselves % te cannot asfford thrit sort ot
pol icy., V, ) hzixe got to be hi reliable.
trading pa-rtn-r. We have got to deliver -on
tire. Ife bave got to get rid of the disputes
and stri) kes and the holdups in shipping
tbrough our ports and fe-establish a name tor
reliability. Yes, allright. Let's mo~ ve on then troin that.
I think you have =-die your vic-vs pretty elevr
on tbait.. The ecoDCTjy itzef-all the signs
at the wmnent are looking very bad are't, they'.
Well the overaeas recetasion is really stai-tin:,
to hit Australia hard. Somie of-the mining
companies are in very g; reat difficulty. -The
pa., use in the price of' oil over th--last yettr
or two has mrade coal~ coriver-sion less
attractive and they have slo~ te'd that dun-
That vould not have maele much difference
because, especially in aconme poxts, xre ran
into bottlenec1, s Yvith the export of coal and
the port facilities have not been adequately
developcI. Inlernal transpc. rt facilities
have not V~ een adequately developed & nd, ycu
lbnowl it would be very easy to sit doun and
blaw people for this that " ut-ld be
responsible for these things but I bave tak~ en
the attitude thtat -it is too ii~ pcortant.. for-
Australia and I have told 1,1r. Itran and
Queensland also that it is not a question 0f
blaming people~ for \, vhat. has happened,-it i s
a question of doing uhat ue can together to
overcome the pro~ blem,~ 10 re-establish
Australia's reliability at the earliest point
Yes. You arce saying are bAically at
the mnerey, though, 1 suppose the Azvricart
economy and the general wiorld downturn.
WVell# in those things, -Ies. but ' ue have
contracted to deliver tonna. cs of coal. We
could not deliver because of industrial
disputes,, because of inadequate facilities.
Let ume, give you an exam-ple: wthen I was in
Korea a few wreeks ago I visited a large mcoder:
n" w steel mill making 9 raillion tonnes of
steel a year. The same Company is going to
build a new-steel mill-producing a little moro
The first mill is based on Australian coal ani
Australian iron ore but. the second xwi1l-not
be-unless-w" can-re-establi-sh reliability YL.
knowt out of Australian ports, for coal and
iromi. ore. -l
Page
C A RLT ON Which you do not nee happ'ening in New SouthI
Well I hope it will. We are working now with
the N~ ew South Vales Goverrajent. and I hope very
rsuch that tbe industrial disputes hich hav. e
done so much to Oa~. age exports, through
N~ ewcastle in particular, are tAargely cover and
that can get back to delivering coal and
filling orders in a proper % ay. I do n~ ot*
think can entirely overcome the problem
until an addition~ al coal loader is In
operation.
CARLTON: PH: But, you kcnow, this Is sor-etbing that affects
Australia's general trading reputation,
CARLTON, Yes.
P'i 4 At a timre when the world : Is tough, % when %% e
are affected by American recession and Interest
rates and lo", or bad, world trading
conditions. Wle just c. annot afford any other
upsets, & ny other, you kinow, problem-s.
CARLTON: Ift. Aliright but Prime Minrister that is still
only one corner of the coony isn't it? Here
at hoze we have these high inltereSt Tates,
wre have un~ ertployment likely to rise don't N~ e?
PR: Coal is only one corner of the e~ conomy certainly
but the American recession and low world trade
is affecting the whole econozzy.
CARLTON: Yes.
PM: N~ ow it Is starting to hit the economuy pretty
hard.
CARLTFON: Yes. Do you believe u. teployment is going to
rise again? In fact, th~ e new figures are out
today I believe.
PM: Well I do not know what any f igures are that
might have been or m~ ight be coming out today
but in the trading conditions that we are
facing I think it is going to be itpossible
to prevent a rise in ure.-ployment. I believe
that was accepted at the tripartite conference
yesterday which I think was a very successful
confereace. For the first tire unions,
industry leaders and governments sat down.
togetber and, you know in terms of what is
happeniag in the e-conczy there-As not total
but a significant. measure of agreemient.
CARLTON: Yes.
I'm CARLTON: PM: CAR~ LTON:
PU: CARLTrON: PMJ: Page 6
1 think the three parties have a co! 7, oa
V'iew that there are sioe very rcal
problemis iihead of Australia and that ' ue
all ought to work togeth-: r to do iubat we
can to overcome those prcsblemns and to
ininimise the . i-pact of overseas recession
on Australia,
Yes. Those problemis are going to be
Significantly higher unem~ ploymnt, business
seetrs to be in big trouble now, The mining
boon seems to have burst, doesn't it? Where.
do we go from here?
Ifell what wre are going to have to do is to
try and, you kaowx, do everything we can to
minimise the im~ pact of world recession on
Australia. You cannot prevent it entirely
but you can take some action, And obviously
wTe are going to be lookiing at this in our own
Budget deliberations. In addition to that,
we have got to mtake sure that Australials;
industry is in a position to take advantage
of any world iupturn wben it does come. You
Rnow the shorter hours and ' the wage increases
there %; ere pretty high through last year have
damasged Australia's cor-petitive positiorn and
if you are getting ten to twenty percen't wage
Increases in Australia at a tiite when people
in fterica or Britain or Europe are accepting
six percent % rage increases it obviously makes
it easier to sell other people, 8 goods and
harder to sell ours.
Rlight. Now you cobviously pujt that to the
unions yesterday and e--ployers would have
agrecAd. Did you get any result from that?
0O% 1 think, you hnuw, I do not oant to
attribute to people m~ ore than might be
appropriate, but I think there Is a general
recognition that wages a-rmongst other things
do have a significant imtpact, upon the
COmPetitive Position of Australian industry,
and If you wanted to bundle a number of things
in together IWAges, world trading poSition,
the fall in coodity prices, in fact, in markets
overseas, 1 think there would be agreeme~ nt that
all these things co~ bined have made the position
of Australian industry very difficult indeed.
Right. At those talks yesterday did you secure
any agreement from the unions or even a hint
from the unions that they inight lessen the push
for higher wages and shorter hours.
% fell that is what a lot of it w'as all about. I
think the~ re is an implicit uaderstanding that
the pressure in these areas has done a good
deal of daimage in the past, That is-my
interpretation. I said it was il7 plicjt. I am
not saying it was Said openly. Because we
were really approaching the problem. Here
we are now in J-uy 192 I( t Nvas not m
question of tryin~ g to cast blase by any of
us on wrhat had happened in the past. There
u1as no point in fighting over old battles.
If the wage increases, as we believe, were
too high over the last twelve months, 1he
question is how best can that be uabsorbed
how beat can you, you know, go througih the
period ahead of us without malking the
position of Australian industry anid
consequently the employm~ ent of Australians
even m~ ore difficult than it now is.
CARLT03: Yes, Well one way uf doing that would be
taxv cuts wouldn't it qad possibly in the
next Budget?
PM: Yes but one of the things we did point out
is that at a period of falling activity,
falling growth, a government's revenue was
also falling and there might be P-very real
question at the tine of our o'an B3udget
deliberations. This question was put to the
people at the meeting yesterday. Should wye
give priority to helping people who are at
work, vho are pa~ ying thxes, who did get
reasonabl. i age incre-ases through the last
twelve months or should be try and give
priority to helping people aho are not
employed or who may lose their . Jobs?
CARlLTON: So in no semse was there a deal struck;
that the unions would ease off on wiage demnand.
if you cono up with a package of tax cuts?
PM: There was not a deal struck in-that sense and
it was not a m~ eetixng desigae-d to achieve
deals at all. It was exploratory. The
meeting demonstrated the good faith by the
three parties and it demonstrated the comn
comitment to do what they can to work
together. N~ ow there is a Tripartite Working
Party which is going to be examining a number
of issues. The Trreasuzrer will be discussing
in more detail) I think, today or tonorrow,
taxati.-n issues. Senator Chaney or Senator
Chaney's Departmental people will be
discussing In detail elem~ ents of the social
welfare/ social security systein and, in
addition to that, the Tripartite Working
Party is going to continue work in ua effort
to put together a coron statem~ ent on the
ecoaco= y. It m~ ight be put to the Iloore
Conference on. Wages. Noew I am not saying that
c-an be achieved. There is a coamitt.-eat to try
and achieve it.
F-(' AR LTON:
PIA: CARLTION: P11: CARLTO:: CARLTrON: CARLTON~: PH: YiOU sound q[ uite hopeful Of tHat.
W~ ell I believe the Conference uas a
positive step foroard rind to get r~ p~ n~ h. from~
oifferent constituencies sitting ( toiin
together and being determ. ined : o try and
work together I think rcepresents a quite
significant step. I do not want to overstate
it but I also believe that Australians are
often fed up with wh~ at appears to be
divisiveness between different groups or
different people in different positions when
they really believe that Australians should
be sitt~ tng down and working together to try
and solve some of the problemxs we have as a
nation and as a people.
Allright but. agreemnent aside, there munst still
be enormous political pressure rom the voters,
quite sim~ ply, for tax cuts, It has been talked
about. It has been headlines for a xibile,
hasn't it? Can you grant themn?
Well you ' uII have to read John ) Noward's
Budget speecb to learn the answer to that.
You must. be anxious -to do it. wvith that
political pressure mouutirg.
I think everyone is alyi-ays anxious to have tax
cuts. I fura sure you hate paying taxes and I
do. Wfe all do. But at the same time we all
ask for goverm~ ent services of a irreat.
variety of kinds.
You are sounding perhaps less optimistic cow
about tax cuts than you were and the Treasurer
was about a mouth ago,
% fell, you know, let we come back to the
question that I put to the meetinjg yesterday:
should we give priority to people who * re in
work who are paying taxes wh. ~ 2opay
tax or ahould we try and give priority to
people who are out of wiork or Nvho may become
out of work as a result of the situation
Australia now finds itself. There are some
policy implications in that question.
Yes, so wdth Lnecployment rising, for instance,
mere people out of work, you may haive to
devote more money to social services and
obviously less to the possibility of tax
cuts.
Well Ii there are more p~ eople on unem: loyment.
ben~ efits there is an im~ eiate and automatic
requirer. ent but, you kniow, ' ubat I was really
askicg the meeting was should we be exam~ ining
other thiags uhich might ease the im-pact of
world recessioa 3n important sections
of the Australian co--': jnity,
Pag~ e 8
CAR LTON:
CARLTON: PU: CARLTON: PMt: CARLTON: PMo: Allritght, rrlne Iinister, thc-\ ihole thrust of
your econ(--ic policies since 1975 has been to
screwv downa on the Budget Deficit* ha~ ti it?
floes that conrtin~ ue now % una:. at-, V?
YTell look we are in difficu: lt and different
circumstances. We had to screw dovin on the
) 3udget Deficit which had got to aibout live
percent of gross doaestic product, arid that
vias very high, aad at the & a-e ttve we had
to mrake vay for private induistry investment
and a year ago private investirent was running
at a thirty year record. It had gror-a
e-normously. It continues at a high rate.
But people are not going to be making m~ ajor
new InveSTment decisions in the current
clim. ate because they will want to sere a
upturn In trade, they will
opportunity to get better markets or get
greater access to rmarlkets before they make
those de-cisions. So private ir. vestrient is
likely to start running dous once the current
investment plans have been comnpleted.
Does that make a case for loo-sening the. screws
on the Deficit?
Ifel1., let me only say it is on of the
considerations th~ at we will heed to have-in our
raind during our Budget deliberations and
discussions next week and the, ieek. after.
Kz. So in simple layr! an's terms there may
be a case for the goverrnment pumping a little
m~ ore money into the econom-y than it has been.
that practice in past Budgets?
WellI you put it in very blunt. term~ s and I
would not want to use those terms at the
mr cn-zwet but I do vant to m~ ake the. point,
circumstances, have changed and wie have got
to examine the implicatio~ ns of those change-d
circurstances for our own. Budget p'l1icy.
Prime Minister, I am about out of time but
I vtould just like to put to you uhat I see a&
a sua-rary of uhat you have been saying. The
ecouncy is io for a rough timze for lphatever
reason but you see somie hope in the faict that
employers, the unions and the Goverament are
at least getting together on it. Would that
be fair?
' lea it is$ it is. I think you have summed it
up and if there is going to be a rough time
for the Australian ecoaomy and for a large
number of Australians we owe it to everyone
to do uhat we can to vwork together.
C ARLTON But t~ at rough tire is ahead? X. N
CAR1TCN: PH CARLTON Page
Ves I thiak it is. \ Ve ai~ e a great trading,
nation, Thirty percent ot our national
i1ncome is depeadent upon trade. You have
only got to look at the dramatic falls in
cuooity prices, the very real difliculties
that the miners are An, the fall in the
price of rural exports, the difficulties
our mantufacturers are in selling in the
export mark( ets they have gained.
And the dollar down and the share mrarket
dovin. And % yell, you know, the share mrarket cdown,
that is a consequence really of all these
other things and world trade is sbrinking.
It has not been growing. In all these
circumstances a difficult time ahead is
unavoidable. Prime Minister, I know you will not tell me
% hen you are going to call a Federal election.
I will not even bolher to ask yuu but thanks
v'ery much indeed for being with us this
morning. Ifell tha-nk you very m~ uch, ' bye ' bye.
CA~ TON: Prize lminiscer tialcolm Fraser on the line
there from Canberra. it is pointle-ss to ask
him uihen and if he plans to call a Federal
election because he has not even tol( I Doug
Anthony yet, if indee-d he knous himself, so
I do not go in for those hypothetical
questions. And tu sum it up as wi.! did with
that last question, there is a rough time
ahead for the Australian economy for
whatever reason. Whether you agree with
M4r. Fraser's reasoning behind it or not he
has at least come out and said two things:
bad timne for the economy, bad time obviouslytherefore
for our trade overseas, the minilig
boom down and, as he said there, unemployment
up. The hope, perhaps, is in those meetings.
he had yesterday with trade union leaders,
with business leaders, and there does seem
froz those meetings to be sone co~ mmon cause
or at least commn agreement that something
someuhere has got to be done. T~ hat is perhaps
the only optimistic sign going at the moment.
' the unemployment figures xvill be out today.
The latest figures, and they are expected -to.
show soraethirg of a rise to put it mildly,
they could be very, very bad new~ s indeed.
There you have it, straight oa the line, the
Prime 1jibister frcc Canberra.
A TT M~ T I ON
FR~ OMh J 114 BONK ER
SALLIY I3ROKE A..