PRESS OFFICE TRANSCRIPT TUESDAY, ' 0 APRIL 19' 81
NEWS CONFERENCE, PARLIAMENT HOUSE, POLAND&, RUNDLE
Prime Minister
At a number of times over recent months, there have been
Soviet-military manoeuvres and preparations. But I believe
that many people are more concerned about current activities
because other circumstances have to an extent changed. Quite
plainly the Soviet Union's tactic and approach has been to*
bring-2ressure to bear-. on-. the. Polish Governmnent: r to undertake.
rigid actions within Poland t~ o prevent Solidarity, the free*
trade union, gaining independence and gaining significant
power. That seemed to be the Soviet tactic for over a period
of number. of.-months,, but., over, the7. last. two to three -weeks
circumstances seemed to have changed. The last confrontation
between Solidarity and the Polish Government seem to result in
yet another win -for Solidarity and as a result of that the
proposed nat ional strike was called off. But in addition to
that there was revealed at that time divisions between the.
Communist Party and even some talk of what we almost believe
to be democratic elections with more than one candidate standing
and at the same time secret ballots being held. I believe that:
the Soviet Union might well be judging that the Government
of Poland will never exert the kind of pressure on Solidarity
that the Soviet Union would believe to be desirable and
that therefore alters the circumstances, the nature of the
current problems in Poland and the possibilities of Soviet
action. There is information that we have had available
over the last three or four days which is indeed disturbing
and-which'could be the forerunner of military action. That
is not necessarily so and at the moment we do not have the"
firm and hard evidence which would confirm that that is so.
But, I issued the statement I did yesterday because up to this
point, the Soviet Union has shown a degree of restraint which
they did not show in Afghanistan which they had not shown
in Czechoslovakia in earlier occasions, which they had not
shown in Hungary and no doubt that degree of restraint is
based on their own hard headed calculations of the interests
of the Soviet Union and of the Warsaw Pact generally, but
whOther they will continue to make that judgement yet remains
to be seen. Certainly it is a dangerous and difficult situation
and our total sympathy must be with the Polish people because
in their struggle to establish a degree of freedom within a
monolothic Soviet system, I think they know that their own
futures depend upon their own actions. That has been their
experience historically and because of the
circumstances and the nature of the divisions in Europe which
grew out of the last world war,! think it is so on this occass; Lon.
We will obviously be watching events over the last few days
very closely indeed and if there are matters which can be said
publicly, I will certainly see that the Parliament and the
Australian people are informed. ./ 2
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Question Sir, did you have a meeting schuduled with Mr Hayden on this
subject ( inaudible)?
Prime Minister
No. Question What was that meeting about?
Prime Minister
Look, that has:* nothing to do with this. Nothing at all.
There has been some highly fanciful reporting on that particular
matte=-Question Did you seek a meeting with 14r. Hayden and did you call it off?
Prime Minister
The circumstances that might have made that meeting desirable.
no longer arise.
Question Sir, is there anything the west could. do if the ISoveit Union
does invade Poland?
Prime M--inister
There haye been very close consultations,
-Australia is involved in those consultations. The NATO countries
are obviously in close consultation as to the kind of action
they might believe should be taken. The question of a military
C response as I believe, is not in contemplation because everyone
knows what that would lead to, and this arises out of the rules,
the ground rules, in a sense that were established after
the last world war when there was a clear division in
Europe, east and west, that division I think in the light
of history was a tragic one and a very wrong one and should not
have been established at the time. But it has been established
and I believe the Soviets would know quite well that any
move by the Sovie * t Union or the Warsaw Pact towards the west
would lead to a third world war and military intervention in
the Warsaw Pact area would likewise lead to that same conflict.
I believe that is not in anyone's contemplation, not in
anyone's plan. But there are many actions that can be taken,
I think the time'to make decisions about those would be
after consultation that would occur if the Soviet Union took
the tragic step to invade. A lot of preparations have gone
on. There would be a heavier round of consultations and
discussions. The Australian Foreign Minister, Tony Street,
would be involved and we have taken steps over the last
three months to make ' sure that we will be part of that
process, that we would not be handed a fait accompli, you
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know, participate or whatever without being able to contribute
to the discussions.
Question Have you spoken to anyone in Washington directly on this?
Prime Minister.
No. The information they have and that we have as I understand
it, is broadly the same and, as I understand it the concerns
in the western world are fairly commonly shared and I think.~
they are reflected in the media reporting which is not jus.
based on, somethinT that= I-have-said,, or that President Reagan
has said, it seems to be basbd on information that the media
has been able to collect on their own account.
QuestIon., Prime Minister, at the time of Afghanistan you saw the then
Russian Ambassador to express Australia's deep concern.
Do you plan similar action?
Prime minister-.
Oh, he sought a meeting with me and wanted to travel to Nareen
to do so, to explain and reason away the Soviet invasion of
Afghanistan. Now, the Soviet Ambassador knows the Australian
Government's attitude to these particular matters very
plainly and very strongly. So far as we know, on the latest
advice that I have had, that final decision to move troops
in has not yet been made and I think we must pray that it
never will be made, that the degree of restraint that I have
spoken of on behalf of the Soviet Union will continue to be
exercised because the consequences for Europe, for western
Europe, for the east, indeed forthe Soviet Union itself,
will be to a degree unpredictable. And the Soviet Union,
is of course, is in a very real dilemna. If it is correct,
and I believe the evidence points to it, if is correct that
they have now come to a conclusion that the Polish Government
will not exert the degree of pressure on Solidarity that
is necessary to pull back the freedoms that have been gained
and that of course, is necessary consistency and for the
preservation of the monolithic nature of the Soviet empire.
If they have come to the conclusion that the Polish Government
either will not or cannot achieve that, then the Soviet Union
itself is left with a great dileinna. If they allow that
movement towards freedom in Poland to continue, thd degree
of freedom that might well be inconsistent with the preservation
of the Soviet empire and which many believe would certainly
spread to other members of the eastern block and might even
spread to the Soviet Union itself. Now, are they prepared to
tolerate that, to accept that because if so,. the Polish people
have opened the door to possibilities of peace and co-operation
which even a short while ago we would not have dreamt of.
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4
But if the Soviet leaders come to the judgement that that
degree of freedom is inconsistent with the maintainence of
the communist system, and on all history that is the
judgement they would come to, then are they going move to
stamp it out and because I believe circumstances have changed
to an extent, military intervention would have-unpredictable
results in eastern Europe. and maybe-even in th. Soviet Union.
Questibn Prime Minister, given their track record, and given:....
the apparent failure of the west to be able to stop events'
in Afghanistan, tor be!-able to get the Russiana tc withdraw,
is it time now, do you think; for the west and countries
like Australia that they will put teeth in their sanctions,
that they will do something positive if the Russians intervene.
Have we reached that stage?
Prime Minister
I believe that the reaction of western Europe, of the United
States, of countries such as: Australia to an invasion of
Poland would be. very substantial indeed. I believe there
would be teeth in the sanctions that would be imposed, but
the consultative processes that have been set in train
basically involve making decisions after the event. There
is in a sense again a dilemna for the west here, they do not
want to take actions which would tend to push the Soviet Union
in a certain direction.
Question
Will you agree sir, that if we fail to take some concerted
action this time, that the Russians will continue to do what
they like.
Prime Minister
I do not think the Russians have done what they liked in all
places. They certainly have in Afghanistan, and I would
certainly agree with you that if they do move their forces
into Poland, then western Europe, the United States, supported
by countries such as Australia, in a very full way will need
to take action and demonstrate much more vigourously than
was the case in relation to Afghanistan, that this is the
kind of behaviour that cannot and will not be tolerated.
For the reasons that I mentioned, I do not believe'that anyone
has in contemplation a military option so don't read that
kind of option into my remarks.
Question
You would embargo ( inaudible)
Prime Minister
I do not want to be lead into it at this point because is does
14 involve the closest consultation between ourselves, the
Europeans, the United States and the processes for that
consultation have already been organised ' if the Soviet should
act. Question How quickly could that response take place?
Prime Minister
I believe the consultations could take place very quickly
indeed. It would be my hope that that consultation would%-,
lead to concerted and joint decisions very quickly indeed..
Question Personal consultations do you mean?
Prime Minister.
I mentioned the Foreign Minister.
Question Have you received any indication yet* on what role Brezhnev i3s
actually playing in Prague? Have you received any indication
of what line he is putting at that conference?
Prime Minister
No, not to this point. His presence in Prague was unexpected.
Indeed, this was something we only recently not long before
he went to Czechoslovakia and this obviously adds to the
significance of the occasion enormously. He apparently arrived
Prague before other leaders and coupled with the other
activities that we have-noted are in process it adds weight
to the concern that I think everyone is feeling at the moment
about the future of Poland and about the nature of Soviet
intentions.
4t Question How serious is the news about Rundle'a'far as the Government's
policies are concerned?
Prime Minister
I do not think it alters the policies at all. Oil search is
expanding significantly. We still want to find substitutes
if we can. It is very unfortunate that this shadow has been
cast over the future of Rundle. There are other shale oil
deposits and we, I think, do not know at this point whether
the same kind of shadow would be over-hanging them. But-I
cannot add anything to the statement that was made yesterday7
We have been'-kept informe. in. recent, weeks. and months of ihe
concerns of the companies in relation to Rundle. We have known
that the costs of development were rising. We have also known
that some of the shale may not be mineable for certain reasons,
technical reasons. It obviously means. that. if the project
does go ahead, it is not going to supply the quantities of oil
that one would have hoped, but it could still be a significant.
project. As 14 am advised, the statement that was issued yesterday
was a balanced one and for the Government's part we are very glad
that it has been. made because we have known of the concerns ifQr
some time and-have believed that those concerns should be made
public. 000---