A A I k-RA
No DATE
D/ 31 18 May 1973
REPORT ( F AUSTRALIAN SCIENTISTS
Attached is a cony of the Rlnort of the Australian
scientists who attended the meeting with Frcach scientists in
Canberra from 7 9 May 1973o Agreement between the two
delegations was reached on a number of ooints, and these are
set out in Section A of the attached Rsnort. This section
also annears in the Report of the French delegation.
Both Renorts were tabled in the House of Renresentatives
by the Prime Minister, Mr Whitlam, on 17 May 1973.
MEETING BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN AND FRENCH SCIENTISTS
MAY 7-9, 1973
AT THE AUSTRALIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCE, CANBERRA
REPORT OF THE AUSTRALIAN SCIENTISTS
Present: Australian Side
Sir Rutherford Robertson
Professor S. T. Butler
Dr D. Metcalf
Professor M. J. D. White
Dr C. H. B. Priestley ( present for two sessions to
Sdiscuss meteorological questions)
French Side
M. le Professeur A. Gauvenet
Dr D. Mechali
SM. J. M. Lavie
M. A. P. Chaussard SECTION A
This section is identical in the two reports.
1. Dose Commitments
There was general agreement that the technical methods
used by the Australian authorities for measuring quantities of
Sradiation fall-out are satisfactory and are in accordance with
Sinternational pr:. ctice. A large degree of agreement was reached
regarding the levels of dose commitment in Australia due to past
French tests. The estimates of those dose commitments in millirads
are as follows ( for strontium-90 and caesium-137, the low figures
are preferred by the French scientists according to their method
of estimation; the Australian scientists' estimates are the
higher figures):
Tyod Thyroid Blood Bn
Element ( young ( odr frigBnWhl
children) children formin cells bd
adults) clsbd
iodine-131 97 9 0 0 0
short-lived 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
0 0 4.0-6.2 5.6-8.5 0
caesium-137
( external) 2.0-3.0 2.0-3.0 2.0-3.0 2.0-3.0 2.0-3.0
caesium-137
( internal) 0.9-1.3 0.9-1.3 0.9-1.3 0.9-1.3 0.9-1.3
carbon-14 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2
TOTAL ( in round
figures) 102-103 14-15 9-12 10-15 5-6
The estimates of the dose commitments due to all tests
are as follows ( the figures were provided for the meeting by an
Australian government scientist; the values for the French tests
are the higher values from the preceding table):
Thyroid Thyroid Blood
Element ( young ( older frigBone Whole
children) children formin cells bd
adults) clsbd
French tests 103 15 12 15 6
Tests by other
nations 74 54 83 96 52
TOTAL for all
tests 177 69 95 111 58
Both delegations agree with the method which has been used
to obtain these figures.
2. Biological Effects
There was general agreement between both groups that for
certain dose levels, radiation is known to cause damage in humans.
However, there may be a threshold below which lower levels of
radiation have no effect, the action on human beings of low doses
and very low doses such as result from the tests never having been
observed. Current work, for example on the phenomenon of repair by
living cells of damage they have suffered at high doses of radia tion,
suggests that low doses may not cause cancer or genetic defects at
a rate proportional to dose. Novertheless the international
authorities have prudently accepted the hypothesis of direct
C proportionality in order to establish accepted dose limits. Certain
additional factors may operate to reduce significantly the risks
Sbelow those predicted from a simple estimation based on proportionality.
These include the lesser effects of certain types of radiation,
radiation received at low dose rates, or over extended rather than
brief time periods.
4.
SECTION B
The following part of this report is the
sole responsibility of the Australian
scientists.
The Australian scientists stressed that, despite the
uncertainties outlined in the above discussion of biological effects,
the only prudent course in attempting to assess the overall risk to
the Australian population was to assume direct proportionality of all
biological effects to radiation dosage. This is the public health
position taken by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the
Effects of Atomic Radiation and by other recognised authorities.
The Australian population is large enough that even very small linear
estimates of risk, in the region of the radiation doses due to the
French tests, yield finite estimates of deaths due to cancer and
genetic abnormalities. The Australian scientistps believe that it
is necessary to accept such estimrates as realistic and not to take
into account notions of a hypothetical threshold dose below which
damage would rot accur. Assuming a linear relationship between
dose received and using maximum published figures for radiation
risks, it has been calculated that, as a result of past French
atomic tests, a final total of 26 cases of thyroid cancer and
14 cases of leuLkaemia and other cancers could result in the
Australian population. The Australian scientists present believe
that, as a result of the French tests that have already occurred,
there could be a-oproximately one death or serious disability in
Australia from genetic causes during the first generation and 18
deaths in all subsequent generations; these are minimum estimates,
and maximum estimates based on present information ( see the Report
of the Advisory Committee on the biological effects of ionizing
radiation, U. S. National Academy of Sciences, November 1972) would
be approximately 15 times these figures.
The above figures are based on the dose commitment
estimates from the French tests given in the tables in Section A.-
It should be noted that the report of the Academy of Science Committee
estimated the steady radiation effects to Australia from French tests
in the Pacific, assuming continued testing at the French site on a
pattern similar to that of the past seven years, and the harm commitments
given in the report must be interpreted in this light. The
dose commitments for the seven years of French testing in the
Pacific are included in the report. Together with the risk factors
used in the report, these commitments permit a direct computation of
the harm commitments to the Australian population from the past tests.
The Australian scientists drew attention to the additional
harmful effects which would accrue to the Australian population as
a result of the improbable event in which the explosion of a highpowered
bomb was combined with quite exceptional meteorological
conditions giving a high fallout over Australia ( Appendix Academy
Report). Although the levels of radiation due to the French tests
are unlikely to cause a statistically detectable increase in the
frequency of cancer or genetic abnormalities in Australia, it is
emphasised that there should be no unwarranted exposure to radiation.
Further, with the long-lived isotopes produced as the result of nuclear
explosions, the genetic effects on the Australian population, though
small, are cumulative.