Ladies and gentlemen, “expect the unexpected” has to be the first law of defence planning.
Prior to the event, who would have thought that Australia would send five thousand troops to East Timor in 1999?
In early 2001, who would have thought that Australia would participate in military operations in Afghanistan later that year; let alone the invasion of Iraq two years afterwards?
Who would have imagined that our subsequent military rotations in Afghanistan, lasting over a decade, would ultimately involve almost 35,000 Australian troops?
Who would have imagined, at the beginning of last year, that Australian personnel would be retrieving our dead from Ukrainian fields under the noses of the Russian army; or that a decade after the execution of Saddam Hussein, another Australian contingent would be in Iraq with no early end in sight to this deployment?
As the world’s 12th largest economy and as a major trading nation; as one of the United States’ principal allies; and as a treaty partner to many of our important neighbours, Australia has global interests and needs some global reach.
The job of Australia’s armed forces is to defend our territory, contribute to a more secure region, and help build a safer world.
First and foremost, our armed forces should be capable of successfully repelling any regional adversary and inflicting very severe damage on any attacker.
But because Australia does have global interests, our armed forces should be capable of contributing proportionately to our allies’ military operations around the globe.
And because the stability of our region is essential for the safety and security of our own country, our armed forces should be capable of mounting independent combat operations anywhere close to home.
Thanks to the decisions made in the 2000 Defence White Paper and subsequently, Australia’s armed forces are now more capable than ever before.
Last year, without assistance, Australia was able to deploy 200 police to Ukraine and 250 soldiers to the Netherlands within just a few days of the MH-17 atrocity.
Just three days after refugees became trapped on Mt Sinjar in Iraq, an Australian Hercules – loaded by Australians with Australian supplies at an Australian facility in the Middle East – was undertaking humanitarian air drops.
Refuelled by an Australian plane, six Australian strike fighters flew virtually non- stop to the Middle East where they now regularly hit targets in Iraq from a base as far away as Sydney is from Alice Springs.
When the HMAS Adelaide amphibious ship joins HMAS Canberra and HMAS Choules and the new air warfare destroyers are operational, Australia will be able to conduct significant amphibious and humanitarian operations throughout our region.
Right now, our armed forces are active around the globe.
Australia has about 500 soldiers training and assisting the Iraqi armed forces to retake their own country.
We have about 350 personnel involved in air strikes against Daesh targets in Iraq and supporting the air campaign over Iraq and Syria as well.
We have about 400 personnel engaged in logistical and transport operations in the UAE and a ship constantly deployed on anti-piracy operations near the Horn of Africa.
We still have some 400 personnel deployed to Afghanistan on a training and logistics mission; and there are still military and police personnel in the Solomon Islands.
Australia seeks no dominion. We threaten no one. We seek only to be a good neighbour, a reliable ally, and a steadfast friend.
But a serious country needs capable armed forces: to defend its citizens, to advance its interests and to uphold its values around the world.
As a peaceful, pluralist democracy, Australia never picks fights.
Our instinct is to settle differences, not to inflame them.
Still, we’ve never shirked our share of responsibility: to help people in trouble, to keep the peace and to deter and defeat aggression.
That’s our record as a good international citizen.
In an uncertain world, we have a responsibility to be prepared.
More than in most other fields, defence preparedness requires continuous effort – not just over weeks and months – but continuous effort over years and decades.
Our 1999 expedition to East Timor did expose very serious gaps in our capability.
The men and women of our armed forces were enthusiastic, determined and professional, but faced serious risks because of the range of operations they simply weren’t equipped for.
The Howard Government swiftly commissioned a new Defence White Paper to reassess our long term defence capability on the basis of these new insights into the challenges we faced.
That White Paper was delivered a year before our perceptions of the world were to change on September 11, 2001 – but it has served us well for over a decade.
The 2000 white paper affirmed that we should pay for the defence we needed; rather than suffer the defence we’d actually paid for.
It faced up to the historical reality that successive Australian governments have tended to put off investing in defence because threats were perceived to be vague or distant.
This short-sightedness has often lulled governments into making short-term cuts or deferring investment to another day.
During the last parliament, for instance, defence funding fell to its lowest level, as a percentage of GDP, since 1938.
As you all know, 1938 was the eve of the greatest ever military threat to our country and our world – yet a nation in denial had allowed its defences to become pitifully inadequate.
While domestic and international circumstances are vastly better now than then, defence decisions are neglected or deferred at our peril.
Our armed forces constantly need new capabilities as they adapt to current and future challenges.
Of course this Government understands that economic security and national security are interdependent.
That’s one of the reasons why the Government is working to repair the Budget.
A stronger budget does mean more capacity to invest in our long-term national security capabilities.
Already, in last year’s Budget, this Government committed $1 billion more to defence – and, in this year’s Budget, has committed an extra $1.2 billion for national security.
That includes $450 million to strengthen our intelligence capabilities, to support metadata retention and to counter terrorist propaganda and violent extremism.
This year’s Budget also includes more than $750 million for defence operations in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Iraq.
At a time when the armed forces of like-minded nations are facing cuts, Australia is boosting defence spending to almost $32 billion next year and $132 billion over the forward estimates.
That is an increase of almost $10 billion compared with the four-year estimates announced in last year’s Budget.
The Defence White Paper to be released in the next few months won’t be an unfunded wish list; it will be a costed, sustainable, long-term plan.
It is now being rigorously tested because it will provide the foundation for our country’s defences over the next two decades.
We’ve listened to the experts from defence, from our intelligence services, from industry, academia, think tanks and broader government.
All the big projects and programmes in the portfolio have been assessed by industry analysts.
For the first time, there has been an externally validated assessment of defence costs so that we can be more confident that defence spending is finally value for money.
Most defence capability projects won’t come to fruition for 10 to 20 years but good planning demands that the money is there when the bills arrive.
A future force structure is at the heart of the coming White Paper.
The Government has reassessed what our armed forces should be able to do.
We understand that our adversaries will hide in cities and caves; that they will exploit the vulnerabilities of modern communications; and that they will take advantage of our diversity and our tolerance to attack our values and weaken our society.
We must expect our opponents and our competitors to use every means to challenge us.
This could include potential use of weapons of mass destruction and offensive cyber capabilities.
So, the White Paper will specify a force structure that enables our military to be even more effective in securing our nation and to make an even more active contribution to regional and global security.
As history has repeatedly shown, the defence of Australia begins far from our shores, sometimes on the other side of the world, so our armed forces must be capable of conducting independent operations in our region and contributing meaningfully to military operations around the globe.
Obviously such a potent, balanced, versatile and sustainable future force does need a range of capabilities – but rather than just list them on a service-by-service basis, there is a joint plan that aligns capabilities with Australia’s Strategic needs.
We need an army that can take and hold ground against a very wide range of opponents; a navy that can deter aggressors, protect our sea lanes, and put our army ashore where needed in the region; and an air force that can strike far afield and support our troops around the globe.
We will invest in the key enablers to make this possible:
• comprehensive intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance to ensure that our armed forces know what is happening around them;
• enhanced cyber and electronic warfare capabilities;
• upgraded communications systems and integrated command and control systems so information can instantly be shared; and
• strong and sustainable partnerships with industry.
We need a strong defence industry to support and sustain our armed forces.
The White Paper will re-set this critical relationship.
It is certainly not necessary or practical that all our defence equipment be made here in Australia but it is necessary that it be sustainable in Australia.
That said, our preference will always be for local build where world class equipment can be obtained at a reasonable price in a way that doesn’t limit interoperability with our allies.
A competitive evaluation process is now underway to choose the next Australian submarine, building on a French, German or Japanese design.
Obviously, we want to maximise Australian involvement in its build, including work on combat systems integration, and this will result in the creation of at least 500 new highly skilled jobs.
And, because there will be more submarines, there will more sustainment work in Adelaide too.
Notwithstanding cost blowouts and delays – very significant cost blowouts and very significant delays – in the air warfare destroyer programme, the ANZAC frigate programme and Austal’s work around the world including for the US Navy, demonstrates that Australia can successfully build surface warships under the right conditions.
It is the government’s intention to develop a continuous build of major surface warships here in Australia to avoid the unproductive on-again, off-again cycle that has done this industry so much damage.
There will be further announcements about naval shipbuilding within the next few weeks.
The White Paper, a Defence Investment Plan, covering major equipment and its sustainment, the Defence Industry Policy Statement, a Naval Shipbuilding Plan and our commitment to increase funding — in combination — will provide the clarity and certainty that the defence of Australia needs.
Today, I reaffirm our commitment to increasing the defence budget to two per cent of GDP by 2024.
In a difficult and uncertain world, and in a region where other countries are spending more on defence, this is the least we can responsibly spend.
In Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere we ask our uniformed personnel to put themselves in harm’s way for our country so we do have a heavy responsibility to equip them properly for the task.
Every decision we take today, every investment we make, must be geared to that goal.
It is not a case of asking defence to do more with less, it is a case of ensuring defence can do even more with more.
For Army, the focus will be on continuing to develop and implement Plan Beersheba, producing a stronger force better prepared for every contingency.
The key to this will be replacing Army’s armoured combat vehicles; preparing for future amphibious operations from the Canberra Class ships; and integrating new intelligence, surveillance and communications technology with other joint capabilities.
The future submarine and frigate programmes, along with the Canberra Class amphibious ships and Hobart Class air warfare destroyers, will be the heart of the future navy.
The air force will move to the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, Growler electronic warfare planes and more unmanned aircraft, and will have significantly stronger command, logistics, transport, and surveillance capabilities.
But succeeding in the future will depend on more than high-end capabilities.
It’s the integration and the sharing of information between platforms and systems that will make our armed forces truly interoperable and allow us to maintain an edge in our region.
Properly knitted together, these capabilities will be more than the sum of their parts and will ensure a more mobile, agile, adaptable, and potent Australian Defence Force.
To make our country safer over the long term, the Government has already identified significant reforms with the Department of Defence itself.
The First Principles Review of Defence confirmed that our armed forces have high international standing and a fine record of delivering on military operations, and in humanitarian and emergency support.
But, and this will surprise none of you, it also identified the empire-building and feather-bedding that tends to build up in large, traditional institutions.
There will be simpler management lines to provide clear direction, transparency and accountability; and we will remove the red tape that causes higher costs and delayed decision making.
This transformational change will be overseen by the Secretary of the Department and the Chief of the Defence Force, there will also be an external oversight board, including all of the members of the review team.
All of this is about making our armed forces better prepared to meet the challenges of the present and the future.
To do so, we must give our serving men and women the resources, equipment and support they need to do the difficult jobs we of ask them.
More than anything else, the most important capability Defence has is its people.
This Government will do the right thing by defence force personnel – with the best equipment, good pay and conditions, and support long after their service has ended.
And we’ll support ADF families – because it’s their resilience and solidarity that makes possible the service of our fighting men and women.
There is a compact between the Australian people and those who wear our uniform.
It is a compact first settled at Anzac Cove 100 years ago in the baptism of fire that shaped our nation.
Back in 1915 the troops who landed at Gallipoli were from every walk of life.
They were labourers, farmers, office-workers and artisans who volunteered to serve for their mates, for our country, for their King and – ultimately – for the ideal that people and nations should be free.
It’s a very different armed force today, but with the same values at its core.
Today’s personnel are highly trained, highly skilled professionals.
Many are seasoned veterans with extensive operational experience – gained defending the freedoms and the values that we hold dear.
We owe it to those in uniform, we owe it to our country and to our citizens, we owe it to the wider world in which we are a force for good to ensure that our armed forces are becoming more potent and more capable all the time.
This is a task that this Government will never shirk.
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