BATH:
Prime Minister, if we could start with the overnight developments. After seeing that US push into Baghdad, are we seeing the conclusion of this war?
PRIME MINISTER:
It's premature to say that. It's gone very well, and the Iraqis do not appear to be putting up any systematic, orthodox military resistance. That's the take-out that I can see. That doesn't mean, though, that it's going to be over shortly. It could still go on for some time. But certainly I have been surprised - and many people have been surprised - at the absence of orthodox military resistance by the Iraqis. That could mean that some of the predictions right at the beginning that once the war really started, the will to fight would not be there because there's no affection for the regime, it could mean that there are some nasty surprises in store. I think it's more likely to be the former than the latter, but it would be foolish for people to start talking about the end right now. It's going well, better than really we had a right to expect, given that you're talking about the liberation of an entire country that has an army of 350,000 and has a very tightly held regime.
BATH:
Donald Rumsfeld, at the beginning of all of this, was estimating this would take between six to eight weeks. Would you say, given the lack of organised resistance that he could well be close to the mark?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, I've been very careful at every stage not to try to put a time on it, except to say that if you look at what's happened to date after, what, 17 days, it's quite remarkable the ground that's been won. I don't want to predict a final time. I really don't. But clearly, it has gone extremely well and when you look at how long the first Gulf war took and how long Afghanistan and Kosovo took, it's quite remarkable what's been achieved in 17 days.
BATH:
Are you encouraged, given the lack of resistance overnight, that we may not see urban warfare in Baghdad?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, you would hope - I mean, if you could wave a magic wand, you'd hope the regime would recognise in the interests of saving Iraqi lives they would now surrender, because there can be no doubt the coalition will win. In a sense it's a question of saving lives, particularly on the Iraqi side, because the overwhelming technological superiority that the coalition has is very marked. I'd say again that if the Iraqi regime were interested in the welfare of their own people, they would recognise that they can't possibly win.
MILNE:
Prime Minister, George W. Bush and Tony Blair will be meeting in Northern Ireland later this week. Were you invited to that summit?
PRIME MINISTER:
I was invited to go to the one in Washington and I indicated to the President that for the next few weeks I wanted to stay in Australia. When I spoke to President Bush on Friday morning he renewed his invitation for me to go to the United States as soon as I could. I would expect to visit him to talk about the post-conflict arrangements some time in the not too distant future. I've got the final touches of a budget to attend to in Australia, and of course I wouldn't want to be out of Australia around Anzac Day, particularly this year, I think it's important. So I don't see myself going in the next week or two but some time in the not too distant future I'd like to take up that invitation.
MILNE:
Would you consider going while hostilities were still on foot?
PRIME MINISTER:
I will be influenced by how it's going. I think that's the best way of putting it. There's arguments both ways. I don't think we're out of contact. I speak to both President Bush and the British Prime Minister on a quite regular basis. I expect to speak to Mr Blair again in the next few days, I spoke to President Bush on Friday morning, and I spoke to Mr Blair a few days earlier. So we'en very regular contact. You've got to remember, Glenn, it takes six hours to get from Washington to London, and it takes 25 to get from Canberra to Washington!
MILNE:
Indeed. I've been on a few of those trips with you.
PRIME MINISTER:
You basically end up wiping out a whole week and there are a lot of domestic things for me to attend to. The important thing is that Australia is locked in right at the highest level as far as an input on the post-conflict resolution. And can I take the opportunity of saying what a fantastic job Alexander Downer did. I haven't seen a foreign minister in years handle with such skill a very, very challenging international issue. I think he's done it with great flair.
MILNE:
You mention there Anzac Day. I wanted to ask you - of course, we have tens of thousands of young Australians going to the Gallipoli Peninsula. I've been there myself.
PRIME MINISTER:
As I have.
MILNE:
What would you advise them this year? Because obviously, they could very well be a potential terrorist target.
PRIME MINISTER:
Glenn, what I would advise them is to take very great care. We have had a security team over in Turkey talking to the Turkish authorities. The security arrangement they have, we think is pretty good. It's one of those difficult things. I don't want to discourage people from going, but I want them to understand that - as reflected in the travel advisories we've issued already and about will issue in the future - there are some heightened areas of concern. I think the Foreign Minister keeps the travel advisories under review. If there is anything further to be said on that on the basis of our latest assessments, we will do so.
BATH:
Prime Minister, if we could go back to Iraq for a moment. We've just seen more pictures coming in this morning of Saddam Hussein and his sons. Do you believe he's still alive?
PRIME MINISTER:
I don't know, but it's becoming increasingly irrelevant.
BATH:
If it is irrelevant, then, at what point do the coalition claim victory? If the object of this exercise was regime change, surely we need to see Saddam Hussein has fallen and fallen comprehensively and know where he is.
PRIME MINISTER:
I'm going to sound very corny and trite and say that you claim victory when the circumstances warrant it. They don't at the moment. They might in the not too distant future but right at the moment, what you claim is what you see, and that is a very dramatic American led military advance.
BATH:
So when would the circumstances be right?
PRIME MINISTER:
I can't say that. It's just not possible. It really isn't. You're dealing with 26 million people that for 30 years have been held in the grip of a really brutal regime. I mean, look at what the British have discovered around Basra - those coffins. Now, that apparently does not relate to executions carried out during the current conflict, but you're looking at a pretty brutal regime. I mean, that's pretty tough evidence. It's pretty hard for people to say that that's a set-up. This is the kind of regime that you are dealing with. People are scared to death. In Basra, in 1991, they rose up and they were let down. They were let down.
BATH:
Do you think that's a factor in them not rising up again this time?
PRIME MINISTER:
I do. I think it is a big factor. I do. I think they're just desperately scared that history will repeat itself. Some people estimate that up to 100,000 people were executed in reprisals. Now, even if that's double what occurred, you're still talking about retaliation on a massive scale. The memory of that would linger for generations, let alone 13 or 14 years.
MILNE:
Prime Minister, would it be a complete victory if we didn't find Saddam Hussein in the same way as we've not been able to find Osama bin Laden?
PRIME MINISTER:
I would say victory once the regime is gone.
MILNE:
Rather than the individual?
PRIME MINISTER:
Yes. It would be very good to see him brought to justice in whatever form might be appropriate, but certainly, getting rid of the regime and thereby ensuring that Iraq does not retain chemical and biological weapons or a capacity to develop them in the future, that is the goal.
BATH:
Prime Minister, we need it take a break. We'll be back with Mr Howard in just a moment.
BATH:
Mr Howard it's now day 18 of this conflict, could it be over before the coalition finds its cause, weapons of mass destruction?
PRIME MINISTER:
I would expect that the real discoveries regarding weapons of mass destruction will be after the conflict's over. I've always expected that. That's not to say that we aren't already seeing a growing evidence and certainly of a circumstantial kind and perhaps of a direct kind that Iraq does have chemical and biological weapons. Why else do you have a training centre, why do you equip your forces with anti-chemical weapon material? The Americans and the British have never used chemical weapons.
BATH:
Perhaps the Iraqis were expecting that.
PRIME MINISTER:
Perhaps they were expecting that if it were used some of it might blow back on to them.
BATH:
British Government officials are saying that if weapons of mass destruction are not found it could lead to a very interesting debate. What do you think it would lead to?
PRIME MINISTER:
I'm not going to hypothesise about that, but all of the intelligence we had indicated that there were chemical and biological weapons and bear in mind that even the French and the Germans said that Iraq had chemical and biological weapons. They argued about the methodology of disarmament, they argued that the process that had gone on for 12 years without being effective should be continued, but they didn't dispute that Iraq had weapons and nor indeed did the United Nations, speaking through the Security Council.
MILNE:
How soon will you bring the Australian troops home after hostilities cease?
PRIME MINISTER:
We would want them to come home as soon as possible afterwards, but it's premature to be talking about any of the Air Force or ground force elements coming home. We are rotating - bringing two of the ships, the Anzac and the Darwin, which of course have been there since last October as part of the multi-national interception force, and we're replacing them with only one vessel. But as to the others forces it's premature. We have to be careful. It has gone very well, there's no doubt about that, but we shouldn't run ahead of ourselves and it's too early to be talking about victory and too early to be talking about declarations of it and it's too early to be talking about bringing people home other than what I've said about the rotation of the ships.
MILNE:
Air Marshal Guy Houston says the role of the strike aircraft, the F/A-18s, is diminishing. Is there any chance they could come out early?
PRIME MINISTER:
There certainly is less need. Once again, it's a little early to be talking about an early return home for them.
BATH:
At this stage does the coalition have any idea about how many Iraqi civilian casualties there've been?
PRIME MINISTER:
Very hard. Very hard. There are reports coming for the Iraqi side. Look, there have been some. Every civilian casualty is a tragedy. The evidence to date is that because of the efforts taken by the allies in their bombing, the indications to date are that there've been a lower number than in past conflicts, but I can't put a precise figure on it. It's too early to do that.
BATH:
Does the coalition fear that there will be a public backlash similar to what we saw during the Vietnam War if casualty numbers are released to the public and Australians know how many innocents have been killed so far?
PRIME MINISTER:
I can tell you there's been no attempt of any kind made by the Government to hold back clearcut information on that whatsoever. I mean, why would we do that? It's just that we're not really in a position - if you stop and think about it, we're not in a position to know exactly. We are in a position to know this, that in the first Gulf War it was estimated that the precision accuracy of tbombing was about 10 per cent, It's been estimated in this it's up to 80 percent or 90 per cent and most military experts agree that there have been dramatic advances in the precision weaponry used by the United States, particularly in bombing, over the last 14 years. Now, that doesn't mean to say you completely eliminate civilian casualties. It does mean you can more tightly target them.
MILNE:
You'd also concede, though, wouldn't you, Prime Minister, that after the first Gulf war the level of accuracy that was claimed during the war was later proven to be much less.
PRIME MINISTER:
I think there was some discrepancy, but that doesn't undermine what I've said.
MILNE:
Do you also concede that cynics might say that holding back the level of civilian casualties is one way of keeping public sentiment up in favour of the war.
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, cynics will be cynical no matter what you do or say, but isn't minimising civilian casualties a laudable objective, whatever the cynics might say.
MILNE:
Certainly, but do you think there have been thousands of casualties?
PRIME MINISTER:
Glenn, I can't add to what I've said. I don't know. I do know this, that we have tried through our targeting policies to keep them to a minimum. Unprecedented efforts have been made by all the coalition forces to keep civilian casualties to a minimum. I don't really care what the cynics say about that. I know what we are doing, I know what the Australian policy is, I know what the American and British policy is, and there's not a lot of difference between the three. There is a bit of difference, and we'll go on doing that. Frankly, I don't care what the cynics say.
MILNE:
I'm not suggesting that - the cynics aren't saying that you haven't done your best to minimise civilian casualties -
PRIME MINISTER:
I think many of them are, you see. I think, by definition -
MILNE:
What they are saying is you're holding back the numbers.
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, where's the evidence of that? I mean, if people have got some evidence that we're holding back the numbers, I mean, really, this is the first I've heard of that.
BATH:
Mr Howard, if we could move on. How much is the war going to cost Australia?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, it will cost quite a bit but not quite as much as some people suggest because we are utilising regular forces and although they are paid at higher rates and things like that, in war time situations there is a certain sunk cost already in relation to the operation and there will be replacement of material and equipment. Look, it's going to cost some hundreds of millions, just exactly how much I can't tell you until it's over.
BATH:
Regarding those hundreds of millions, what effect is that likely to have on the budget? Will it remain in surplus?
PRIME MINISTER:
We will still have a surplus budget.
BATH:
How are you going to achieve that?
PRIME MINISTER:
By the prudent economic management that's produced budget surpluses in the past, by limiting our spending initiatives to things that are really important, and the strong economy will continue to produce quite solid revenues.
MILNE:
I presume, however, that tax cuts are off the table, are they?
PRIME MINISTER:
Glenn, I'm not going to try and rule things in and out of the budget. I've said in the past that where you have a capacity, rather than spend a lot more I'd rather give tax relief. Now, that's a generic statement which has no particular time reference.
MILNE:
Work and family package, is that still on the table as well?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, we never said we were going to have that in this budget. We are still doing quite a lot of work on that. The evidence to date is that we have addressed alot of the imbalances that did exist. There are always areas where you could do more if you have the capacity and I think it will remain in that category.
MILNE:
Finally, Prime Minister, you've said you'll stay in the job till you see this crisis through -
PRIME MINISTER:
Yes.
MILNE:
- but can I ask you seriously, when does crisis end? What's the definition of the end of the crisis?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, by definition if it hasn't ended I can't tell you exactly when that is and I don't have total control over that. I've indicated that and I've also indicated that I'm not really in the business at the present time of saying anything about my longer term future. I'm very heavily focused on leading the country through a very difficult time and we'll worry about that other issue sometime in the future.
BATH:
Mr Howard, no doubt you'll be pestered about it for quite a while.
PRIME MINISTER:
I'm sure I will be.
BATH:
Thank you very much for joining us this morning.
PRIME MINISTER:
Thank you.
BATH:
Glenn, see you next week. Thank you.
MILNE:
Thank you.
[ends]