LOANE:
Prime Minister Howard, good morning and welcome.
PRIME MINISTER
Good morning. Nice to be here, sorry I'm late.
LOANE:
That's quite alright, that's our traffic. Well in breaking news as you heard this morning Alexander Downer has said that any Australians in Iraq should leave now and with President Bush and Tony Blair now saying war is likely to start before the end of the week, with or without the UN. George Bush said earlier in the early hours this morning it's essentially time. Can you tell the Australian people here this morning, will our troops definitely be fighting beside the British and American soldiers in Iraq?
PRIME MINISTER
Well a decision has to be made on that by the Cabinet. I would expect to have a discussion in the not too distant future with President Bush. I think I'll also have another discussion with Mr Blair and depending on what materialises in New York over the next 24 hours then I would expect that our Cabinet would meet and we would make that final decision. I mean it is obviously now more likely...
LOANE:
Would you say inevitable?
PRIME MINISTER
I beg your pardon?
PRIME MINISTER
Would you say inevitable now?
PRIME MINISTER
Well I always like to be cautious on these things because you never know what happens at the last minute. The United Nations Security Council has a long record of producing surprise end outcomes, I don't think that is going to occur, we have got a situation now where it seems very unlikely to me that a consensus on an effective 18th resolution can be reached. Mind you, you don't for legal reasons need it but perhaps we'll come to that later. But as far as the issue of commitment is concerned we'll put ourselves in a position to make the commitment, I've said that all along, and the only reason I've held back and said the final decision's not been taken is I've wanted to give the Government and the nation room to make that decision in full possession of all of the relevant facts and circumstances.
LOANE:
When would the soonest you'd be having a Cabinet meeting Prime Minister, will it be some time tomorrow?
PRIME MINISTER
Well it would be some time very early this week, I can't be absolutely certain about it, it depends on events as they unfold. But the sequence has always been the situation crystallises one way or the other in New York then we have a Cabinet meeting and we take a decision as a Government and then we immediately give effect to that decision by informing the Chief of the Defence Force of that decision and certain consequences flow from that. We will take the matter to Parliament and Parliament will have a chance of debating the matter, as it happens Parliament is sitting this week, fortuitously, and therefore the whole issue can, as I heard Barrie Cassidy say a moment ago, be played out against the backdrop of Parliament sitting.
LOANE:
Does it worry you that you haven't taken the vast majority of the Australian people with you on this, do you think perhaps you've used the wrong method, you've relied too much on all the way George Bush rather than arguing for example the legalities of a war against Iraq? Do you think you've taken the wrong tact and put people off with that George Bush type rhetoric?
PRIME MINISTER
Sally, different people will have different views about what is the better or the best argument and in the end whether people go with me or not on this is probably too early to make a call about, I think a lot of people are still undecided. I'm not doing this for reasons of populism or political popularity, I'm certainly not. I'm doing it because I believe it is in the best interests of Australia, I've endeavoured to argue the reasons and the reasons are really the concern I have that if a country like Iraq is allowed to keep chemical and biological weapons other states of a similar type will do likewise and the more countries like that that have them, the greater likelihood there is that they'll get into the hands terrorists. And once that happens they'll be used whatever the cost. That is the essence of my argument, the American alliance is an important part of it but it's not the dominant part. And in the end I think the Australian people will make a judgement on their assessment of how things work out, I know a lot of people don't agree with me and I suspect a lot of people do and I suspect there's an even larger number in the middle. But in the end in a situation like this my responsibility is to call it as I see it in the interests and the point of view of the country's longer term security and protection and that's what's motivating me on this, not some kind of short term political goal.
LOANE:
Since my interview on Friday with Michael Costello, the former diplomat and Labor staffer who argued that there is a legal case for war. You've actually quoted that and saying look yes you support that. Why haven't you argued this right from the start Prime Minister, if you believe this?
PRIME MINISTER
Well Sally I have, in the formal statement I made to Parliament on the 4th of February I said there was no reason in international law to have an 18th resolution. The reason we wanted an 18th resolution, or another resolution was political in order to put even greater pressure on Iraq. But I have always believed, and it's the Government's legal advice, as Mr Costello said, Mr Michael Costello said, that there is adequate authority in existing Security Council resolutions. And the reason I quoted Mr Costello yesterday was that his opinion is totally different from Mr Rudd's, Mr Rudd says it's illegal, Mr Costello says it's legal and Mr Crean says he doesn't know. Now you've got really three Labor opinions on this very important issue. In the end of course Mr Crean was right in saying one thing that perhaps the morality is even more important than the legality. If that is the case why is Mr Crean handing over his judgement about the morality of it to other people?
LOANE:
He's actually called for troops to be withdrawn...
PRIME MINISTER
Yes well he's also said all along that everything would be okay if you had another resolution. Now it seems to me that you can't have it both ways, you can't say that it's immoral and yet it suddenly becomes moral because you get another resolution when for legal reasons you don't need another resolution. Does morality now rest, international morality now rest in the palm of the hand in the permanent members of the Security Council, particularly the French who hold a veto? I mean in the end I would expect every Australian to make up their own mind as to whether something the Government does is moral or immoral. I've certainly done that myself and I would expect most of your listeners would and I don't think they'd ask the French Government or indeed any member of the Security Council to tell them what is right or wrong.
LOANE:
Mr Howard, in the event that we are there with the US and the UK by the end of the week do you expect fallout from our powerful Muslim neighbours like Indonesia and Malaysia? I mean you must be extremely worried about that.
PRIME MINISTER
Well Sally one of the reasons, not the main reason, but one of the reasons I deliberately went to Jakarta a few weeks ago after I had been to Washington and London was symbolically by doing that in the same trip to emphasise the importance of our relationship with Indonesia but also to assure President Megawati that there was nothing anti-Islamic in what we were doing. Our quarrel is with the Iraqi regime, it is not with the Iraqi people, and it's not with Islam. One of the obscene things about international terrorism is the way in which it has hid behind Islam, some say even hijacked a great religion for its own purposes and reassuringly President Megawati said to me on that visit that she did not see what Australia was doing as anti-Islam and that would be a view that she would put to other countries. Now that's quite reassuring to have the President of the largest Islamic country in the world saying those two things. That is not to say that she agrees with our policy on Iraq, clearly the Indonesian Government has a different view, but not a different view in the context of seeing it as some kind of anti-Islamic act. And our relations with Indonesia are very good, we had seven ministers go there last week and they all reported an extremely friendly reception and that's occurred against the background of our troops having been deployed and the two countries clearly having a different policy on Iraq.
LOANE:
24 past nine, I'm with the Prime Minister John Howard in the studio. Mr Howard, the possible threat of increased terrorist activity in the event of a war, the possible threat of young Australian soldiers coming back in body bags, does that keep you awake at night, you're on the verge of making probably the worst, or the biggest and probably worst decision of your political career, your long political life.
PRIME MINISTER
Well certainly the most difficult, the question of whether it's the worst decision will depend upon whether you agree with it or you don't. I don't accept that, but I certainly accept it is the most serious. Of course it does, or course I think about it all the time.
LOANE:
Does it keep you awake?
PRIME MINISTER
From time to time yes of course it does. I wouldn't be human if it didn't.
LOANE:
What do you draw on in those moments?
PRIME MINISTER
Well I draw on a lot of things, I try not to be heart on sleeve in relation to those things. They're internal, they're personal and they're important to me. But I want the Australian people to know that I've thought enormously about this issue, and I am not taking this decision lightly and it has been preoccupying my mind now for a lot of time, not to the exclusion of other issues, I want people to understand. But I don't want anybody to think that I'm adopting a cavalier approach to this, I think about the consequences, I think about the inevitability of there being casualties, we all hope and pray they're minimal but you have to consider in terms of the human rights, the human suffering element that there's a very powerful argument that there'll be less suffering for the Iraqi people if Saddam Hussein is removed. I mean that's something that's come through very strongly, especially over the last week, person after person, I think Ramos Horta argued very eloquently that the suffering argument was really in favour of the removal of Saddam Hussein and when you think of the possibility that chemical and biological weapons will spread then you're talking about a very powerful argument for action now being taken. But I want people to understand that it's not being taken as some kind of reflex response to an American request, I value the American alliance very much and I make no apology for that.
LOANE:
Prime Minister some people who can remember back as far as Harold Holt and all the way with LBJ and the enormous antagonism in a lot of Australian society to that, are saying look we're seeing this now with you, you're being pelted with eggs, you've got demonstrators now, you've got increased protection. I mean are you concerned about that for your own safety?
PRIME MINISTER
Look I'm not concerned about it.
LOANE:
And that you're going right against what so many Australian people seem to be saying?
PRIME MINISTER
Well historically you have to remember that initially there wasn't strong opposition to the Vietnam War, if you want to keep the history of it correct.
LOANE:
It built up.
PRIME MINISTER
In fact it was the other way around, Harold Holt won a very big victory in 1966. But these are very different circumstances, I see no comparison between the arguments for and against what we might do here and what was done back in the 1960s in relation to Vietnam. I mean that was an entirely different situation...
LOANE:
But there is a lot of public antagonism now...
PRIME MINISTER
But Sally I've had demonstrations against me from the very day I became Prime Minister. I had demonstrations when I went to my daughter's, I had demonstration against me when I went to my daughter's graduation at Sydney University within a few months of becoming Prime Minister. I mean I've forgotten what the demonstration was about, I think it was just because I was on campus at Sydney University and certain people didn't like it.
LOANE:
So this is no different?
PRIME MINISTER
Look I think these marches are large, I understand that. And I understand and respect the fact that there's a lot of people who disagree with our position, I do respect that, but I ask them to understand and respect our view, I ask them to accept that what we will do if we go in will be done in accordance with the legal authority previous given by the Security Council. So in that sense it can be argued that we've really tried to make the Security Council process work, I think the French have been very obstructionist, they've adopted a spoiling role on this issue.
LOANE:
In fact the latest news we've just got off the wires is that President Chirac has reaffirmed that France is ready to use its veto in the Security Council to block this resolution. So it's starting to look more and more inevitable.
PRIME MINISTER
If I can just take that point, I mean they voted for resolution 1441, the 17th resolution. Nobody is arguing that Iraq has complied with that 17th resolution, they're now saying they're going to veto an 18th resolution. They're also acknowledging and the French Foreign Minister acknowledged yesterday on television that the American and British military build up had in fact forced Iraq to let the inspectors in and to yield a few morsels of co-operation. Now do they expect the American and British troops to stay there for another six or 12 months? I mean there's a logical inconsistently with attacking the policy that has as its core the military build up yet say thank you very much for the benefit to the military build up and we'll build an alternative policy on the basis on those benefits. That is essentially the argument that the French have adopted and if I hear him correctly that really is the argument that Mr Crean has adopted because he is saying the Australian forces should come home, shouldn't have been there, that means the same thing in practice, but not the British and American because they're but his admission exerting pressure. So I see a hypocrisy and an inconsistently in all of that, we wouldn't have got the inspectors back had it not been for what the Americans have done. Now they have copped a lot of criticism, but they have tried to make the Security Council process work. The French I believe see this as an opportunity to reposition themselves in the international diplomatic firmament rather than addressing the merits of disarming Iraq. I think that's very disappointing to say the least.
LOANE:
Prime Minister we'll take a break now for the news headlines and we'll be back in just a moment.
[news break]
LOANE:
And I'm in the studio with the Prime Minister John Howard. Mr Howard the effect on our economy of a war, you must be really concerned about that, I spoke last Friday to former Liberal Leader John Hewson, in the business community now of course, he's very against a war as you know, but he's saying around the city people are just shaking their heads, they're really concerned about our economy. You concerned?
PRIME MINISTER
Obviously if it were to go on for a very long time and there were to be a sustained lift in the oil price then that would start to have an effect. But if the conflict is shortlived then I don't believe the effect is going to be anything like that. I don't find people shaking their heads, I don't. He must be talking to a different group of people from me. In fact I find a lot of people who are saying well the economic threat is the uncertainty rather than the actuality. A lot of businessmen have said that to me, as recently as last week I had a discussion with a number of very senior business figures in Sydney and that is exactly what they said to me. So in other words if the matter is confronted and dealt with in a relatively short period of time then the economic fall out, and I'm not stressing for a moment that the economic fall out is the most important, I don't want any of your listeners to think that but as you asked me a question about the economics of it I'll put it that in context.
LOANE:
Are we going to get some sort of quid pro quo from Americans, a story by Christine Wallace on the front page of the Oz this morning, the Bush Administration is prepared to confront Washington's protectionist farm lobby to secure a genuine free trade deal with Australia. Is this something that you're managing to put pressure on?
PRIME MINISTER
Well Sally we are not taking the stance we are on Iraq in order to win a trade deal, I want to make that very clear. I would never do that, I see the two things as quite separate.
LOANE:
It has to help though doesn't it?
PRIME MINISTER
Well I don't know, I'm not seeking to leverage one off the other. We have to look at these things quite separately. I believe very strongly in a free trade agreement with America if we can negotiate it because America is going to be more important to Australia in the future than even if it's been in the past. One of the reasons for that, and people tend to overlook this, is that on all of the trends out to the middle of this century America is going to grow at a faster rate, the American economy will be much stronger than the aggregate of the European economies by the middle of this century. A lot of people overlook that sort of thing when they, in a knee-jerk criticise, what we're trying to achieve with this Free Trade Agreement. If you throw yourself forward its fair to argue that the two great economic powers of the middle of this century would be America and China.
LOANE:
So you've tied your strings to the right caravan then?
PRIME MINISTER
Well if, you should use plural because there's no country we've worked harder to build a relationship with economically than China. I mean people who say we have disengaged from Asia must have been asleep for the last seven years, we have doubled our trade in China. And our economic relationship, and indeed political relationship with the countries of North Asia such as Japan, China and Korea has never been better. Sure we have difficulties with Malaysia but so did Paul Keating, my predecessor, I think the difficulty there is that at a political level rather than at a people to people level where the relationship was quite strong in Keating's time and is quite strong now. The American economy in the long term will be tremendously important to Australia and that's the reason I'm going for a Free Trade Agreement but I am not trading support over Iraq for a Free Trade Agreement, I expect that negotiation to be very tough and we'll be in there fighting very hard and I hope we can pull it off because if we can we'll be part of an expanding economic relationship not a contracting one.
LOANE:
Prime Minister, in all of the overseas news that I've been watching this morning the coalition of the willing only ever seems to say Britain and America, is that a blessing in disguise do you think or do you wish that the rest of the world would acknowledge that we're there with Britain and....
PRIME MINISTER:
I don't get really fussed either way, I think the British and American people understand and appreciate very much and I know that for a fact the stance we've taken. You've got to remember that the three Security Council members that were sponsoring the 18th resolution were Britain, America and Spain, we're not a member of the Security Council that's why the three of them met. We have taken the stance we have for our own good national interest reasons and I'm quite certain that it's well understood but I'm not seeking to ingratiate myself or Australia with the United States or the United Kingdom, we share a lot of values with those two countries and those two countries are very close to Australia, but we're also very close to other countries as well.
LOANE:
Do you wish George Bush could more convincing to Australians? Do you worry about his rhetoric that seems to be turning even Tim Fischer, the former (National) Party leader said, 'look, this boots and all, sheriff, sort of dead or alive rhetoric puts Australians off' - do wish that sometimes that his rhetoric was different, do you think things would be different in trying to convince Australians if he were a little more diplomatic in his language perhaps?
PRIME MINISTER:
Sally, everybody has their own style and the relevance of a political leader's style is how his own people react to it. I try and communicate in a language that the Australian people appreciate and understand. There are stylistic differences between Americans and Australians...
LOANE:
It's not helping you is it?
PRIME MINISTER:
Oh look, I, the question of whether it is or isn't, I don't know that I accept that, but I find George Bush when I meet him both a warm and an intelligent person, I like him...
LOANE:
Do you think that comes across in his public outings?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, some people think so, some people don't, I mean, some people don't like me very much and others perhaps who are a little more positive but in the end you have to make a judgement on these things according to the merits of the argument not whether you like the style of the person who's putting forward the argument and I'm not going to give a commentary or give a, sort of, some kind of debating scorecard on my fellow political leaders. I believe very strongly that he's tried hard, George Bush, to make the UN process work and I think that the strength that Tony Blair's displayed on this issue has been quite remarkable and I've told him that, I told him that as recently as Saturday night when I spoke to him and I admire him in the long run I believe he will be seen by the British people including his many detractors now as having done the right thing.
LOANE:
Has he been a more articulate spokesman, do you...?
PRIME MINISTER:
Oh look, I'm not giving any attention to who's more, I mean...
LOANE:
More convincing?
PRIME MINISTER:
Sally, what matters to me about articulation is whether I'm succeeding in communicating my point of view and our position in Australia to the people of Australia.
LOANE:
That matters to you doesn't it, Prime Minister and?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well it matters, I mean well, of course it matters to...
LOANE:
The polls are going the other way to you.
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I don't know how the polls are going to end. I mean it always matters to a political leader whether he or she is getting the argument across, I mean, there's nothing strange about that but I make that point to illustrate that I'm not really interested in giving a commentary on Tony Blair and George Bush and I would say again that it is the merit of the argument not the style of the person, whether it's John Howard or Tony Blair, or George Bush, or Simon Crean, it doesn't really matter.
LOANE:
It's twenty to ten. Final question for the Prime Minister, will you be sending a message of support to our troops who are in...?
PRIME MINISTER:
I have sent a message of support to them from the very day they left.
LOANE:
What will you say to them when they are about to take part in war?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, I say now to them that the Australian nation is very proud of you, the Australian nation admires your professionalism, the Australian nation will give you all support and I ask all Australians to say and think the same thing because a force's duty is to carry out the request and the orders of the Government of the day and the men and women of the Australian Defence Force have my total respect and affection and regard for their professionalism and their dedication and that'll be the spirit in which I always address them.
LOANE:
And will address them?
PRIME MINISTER:
And will address them irrespective of what the circumstances are because that is the point of view that I have irrespective of what they may be doing and I hope that all Australians feel the same way because their job is to serve and carry out the instructions of the Government of the day.
LOANE:
Prime Minister, thanks very much for your time this morning.
PRIME MINISTER:
Thankyou.
[ends]