HOSKING:
Give me your assessment, if you could, of the chances of the US-British resolution going to the UN this week being passed.
PRIME MINISTER:
I'm dealing with the issue as it unfolds. I believe the 18th resolution on Iraq, which it will be, should be passed with or without an amendment. I'm not particularly fussed either way because I think it will build further pressure on Iraq and maybe there is a faint hope if it is passed, that Iraq will finally see the light of day and 'fess up and military conflict can be avoided.
HOSKING:
You wouldn't want to put a lot of money on that though, would you?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well once again Mike, I don't have the luxury of sort of talking in that kind of fashion.
HOSKING:
What you do have the luxury of though is the ear of the President of the United States of America. Do you know anything we don't as regards when war starts?
PRIME MINISTER:
Look, he is trying to get a resolution through and so is the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
HOSKING:
Are you in the loop?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I don't know what that means.
HOSKING:
Do they call you and tell you things that they don't tell anybody else?
PRIME MINISTER:
Obviously we have a good relationship with the American administration, but I'm not on an important issue like this going to lapse into the lingo of the ultra conversational. It's a serious issue this. We're talking here about what I see as the danger of chemical and biological weapons getting into the hands of terrorists, and I don't regard that as a lighthearted subject. It's quite a serious subject and that's why I'm answering in a serious tone.
HOSKING:
So in taking this stance, why can't you, why can't Blair, why can't Bush, convince the rest of the world that you're right?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well the question of whether the rest of the world is convinced or not is something on which the jury is out, but in the end sovereign Governments have to take decisions that they believe are right and they believe are in the interests of their nation, and in the interests of the community of nations.
HOSKING:
The irony of this is that you're also a member of the United Nations. What is your assessment of how the United Nations has handled this whole Iraq situation over the last 12 years?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I think it will depend a bit on how the Security Council behaves over the next few days. I think up until President Bush went back to the United Nations in September of last year, the United Nations had basically failed the test. And if the United Nations, through the Security Council, cannot effectively disarm Iraq, it will do enormous damage to its credibility.
HOSKING:
And so if they don't pass this coming resolution this week, they've failed another test?
PRIME MINISTER:
I think if the United Nations doesn't pass a resolution, the Security Council rather, doesn't pass this resolution, I think it will have failed a test. And if it behaves in a way that allows Iraq to get off the hook about disarming, then it's going to damage, seriously damage, its credibility.
HOSKING:
Are we going to have to rewrite international law, because presumably if they fail that test, the world now looks to the United States for a lead, don't they? If there is an international trouble spot, what's America going to do, not what the United Nations is going to do.
PRIME MINISTER:
I don't think you automatically make that link.
HOSKING:
Why not?
PRIME MINISTER:
Because I don't think you do. I think you have to look at each situation according to its circumstances.
HOSKING:
If you can't trust the United Nations Security Council on Iraq, would you trust them on North Korea for example?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I think you make a very valid point. If the Security Council can't discipline Iraq, it doesn't have an earthly hope of disciplining North Korea.
HOSKING:
Is Australia in danger?
PRIME MINISTER:
All western countries are at risk.
HOSKING:
Is Australia more in danger now because of the stance you've taken?
PRIME MINISTER:
I don't believe so. If you look at what has happened over the last few years, you see western citizens struck down irrespective of the attitude of the Governments of their countries. And you've got to remember that the 1990s saw the gradual rise of international terrorism well before the election of the current administration in the United States. So terrorism rose under a different response, if I can put it like that, from the United States Government.
HOSKING:
Have you ever considered that the stance that you're taking on Iraq is political suicide for you?
PRIME MINISTER:
My duty as an elected leader is to listen to people and then to make up my mind as to what is in the best interests of the country. Sometimes my decisions are initially unpopular. Sometimes my decisions are always unpopular. Sometimes my decisions start off being unpopular, and then they end up being a little more popular depending on what happened. But that's the lot of a democratic leader.
HOSKING:
Well it's an interesting thing, democracy, isn't it, because you're only there because of the people. The people are telling you right now you're wrong. Why aren't you listening to the people?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well other people, and often the same people, have said to me in the past that I was poll driven. They can't be right both times, can they?
HOSKING:
Which is it going to be this time - are they eventually going to turn around and say you were right, well done?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I don't know, but what I do know is that I believe in what I am doing, and I believe in the stance that I am taking. That's what I know. And in the end, that is the only course of action that I can take.
HOSKING:
Is this the greatest test of your leadership so far?
PRIME MINISTER:
This is the most difficult issue I've had, yes.
HOSKING:
How hard have you wrestled with it?
PRIME MINISTER:
You always anguish over something like this, but I have never thought of changing my position. Never.
HOSKING:
How are you going to explain the first body bag to the Australian people if it comes to that?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I think the Australian people will understand that if we are ever engaged in military conflict, that casualties could occur. But casualties can occur in the most benign of circumstances. We lost 88 Australians in Bali because of a wilful act of international terrorism, and we all had to grapple with that. And I will, amongst other things, be asking the Australian people to bear those circumstances in mind if we become involved in military contact with Iraq.
HOSKING:
Do you expect casualties, Australian casualties in this?
PRIME MINISTER:
Look, we're not engaged in military conflict. Obviously, when there is a military conflict, there is always a danger of casualties. One of the advantages of deploying our troops early is that if they are sent into battle, they will have been acclimatised and got ready for that conflict.
HOSKING:
Bush said early on in this whole piece, you're either with us or against us. Does that same logic apply to New Zealand in your relationship with them?
PRIME MINISTER:
Look, every leader has a different way of expressing things. George Bush has his language. I have mine. As far as New Zealand is concerned, our differences of approach on this issue are not going to contaminate the relationship in any way.
HOSKING:
I wasn't suggesting they were.
PRIME MINISTER:
Well whether you were suggesting it or not, I just wanted to take the opportunity of making that observation.
HOSKING:
Alright. Do you see us as against you though?
PRIME MINISTER:
No, I don't. I don't see New Zealand...
HOSKING:
But we are.
PRIME MINISTER:
No. New Zealand and Australia would both like to see Iraq disarm. But a relationship has many dimensions and there is no way that I am going to see this in terms of New Zealand against us, or Canada against us, or whatever. That is not my philosophy. I have a strong view, a strong position, and I have very considerable regard for the leadership that President Bush has displayed on this issue. Let me leave people in no doubt about that.
HOSKING:
How do you see the war going, if there is a war?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well to begin to speculate about how the war might go is to encourage a view that there is still no hope of a peaceful resolution, and I don't want to encourage that view.
HOSKING:
Is it fair to suggest though that one of the things we can rely on with the UN is it's entirely predictable. That you have a deadline, you get an al-Samoud missile destroyed, it's a charade, and it's a predictable charade.
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I think it's fair to say that Iraq would never have made any concessions, pitiful though they may be, towards disarmament had it not been for the American military presence, the very presence criticised by the people who are very happy to argue that the inspectors should be given more time.
HOSKING:
But having said that, what I'm suggesting to you is that we all know where the UN are going on this. There is no resolution going to be passed this week. The time is going to run out. A war needs to be started.
PRIME MINISTER:
Well that is your assertion and you're entitled to make it...
HOSKING:
It's not just mine. It's most people's assertion.
PRIME MINISTER:
It's your assertion and you're entitled to make it. I don't have the luxury of making a whole lot of assertions. I have to deal with the implications of my words.
HOSKING:
Do you subscribe then to the US theory that if a war broke out, that it would be quick and clean and democracy generally would come to the Middle East?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I certainly think that if one of the consequences of military conflict were the departure of Saddam Hussein, the world and the Middle East would be a better place, and I'm sure that's the view of all of the Arab countries that surround Iraq.
HOSKING:
Do you also think that once a war started, other countries would actually fall into line behind you?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, once again, I'm not going to predict the behaviour of other countries. I simply make the observation that unless Iraq is effectively disarmed, she does represent a threat not only to her region, but by her example as a rogue state having chemical and biological weapons, to other countries and I worry that those weapons will one day get into the hands of terrorists. That is why I'm taking the stance I am. That is why I feel so strongly about it.
HOSKING:
And you will be doing that with other countries as well? This is a long-term view of yours. Once you have Iraq sorted out, that same attitude applies to other countries like North Korea for example.
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, once again, I don't have the luxury of jumping from one country to another. Circumstances are different. But I do know this, that if the...
HOSKING:
It's a very real threat.
PRIME MINISTER:
Yes. You're right. And that is why a failure of will by the Security Council over Iraq will render the handling of North Korea, which is in our own region, infinitely more difficult.
HOSKING:
Explain to New Zealand, because we got excited about it the other day, that you're going to surround Australia with a star wars missile defence system. Are you?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well you shouldn't have got excited. What we said was that we would talk to the Americans about their plans to develop it, and I defended the logic of talking to them without in any way committing myself to it, and I think it's a perfectly intelligent position to have.
HOSKING:
Well what you've suggested to me is you're seriously worried about North Korea, seriously worried enough to be able to look at surrounding your country...
PRIME MINISTER:
What I've said to you is that North Korea broke a deal that it made with the United States under President Clinton some years ago, has developed a significant nuclear capacity, and that ought to be of concern to New Zealand as much as it is of concern to Australia. Now I haven't said any more than that, and that is all I intend to say at the present time.
HOSKING:
Let me just wrap this up with a couple of questions. How much of this whole view of the world, your stance with America and Britain, has to do with your middle name?
PRIME MINISTER:
None.
HOSKING:
You don't feel Churchillian?
PRIME MINISTER:
No, look I regarded him as the greatest figure of the 20th century because he stood alone against Nazism, and gave great leadership. But we're a world away from those days, and much and all as I admire the man and admire many figures out of history, and he's not the only one, this is a different world and I don't...
HOSKING:
But still a dangerous world.
PRIME MINISTER:
A dangerous world, and you can draw some lessons from that period and one of those lessons is that if you walk away from problems hoping they'll disappear, you're wrong, and one day they'll come back to bite you in an even bigger way than you thought would be the case when you first confronted them.
HOSKING:
Appreciate your time.
PRIME MINISTER:
Thank you.
[ends]