Subjects: : Iraq; war tax; polls; housing market; drought; gun buy back; “Tough on Drugs” campaign; Ansett tax; airlines; Medibank Private; SAS allegations; National Farmers Federation; Telstra; Victorian election; Robert Doyle; NRL Grand Final.
E&OE...........
In the studio with me first, the Prime Minister. Mr Howard, good morning.
PRIME MINISTER:
Good morning Neil.
MITCHELL:
Mr Howard, the campaign against involvement in Iraq is building. Both the Anglican and United Churches have joined into it in recent hours. The Uniting Church is considering advising its members to indulge in civil disobedience and to refuse to pay any war tax. Would that lead to action against that?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well that';s a hypothesis built on a yet to be resolved possibility in the event of a contingency, if I can put it that way. All of this talk about a war tax is quite hypothetical. We';re not involved in a war. I hope we';re not involved in a war in the future. We are trying to achieve with others an effective but peaceful resolution of this issue. If that proves to be impossible, then certain decisions will have to be taken. But honestly that is the position. And I think all that sort of talk is, as I tried to describe it a moment ago, completely hypothetical.
MITCHELL:
Is it not reasonable though to have the war tax as part of a discussion because that could affect people';s judgement on whether it is worth going into conflict?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well we haven';t sought to persuade the Australian people as yet of the need for Australian involvement in a conflict. Obviously if the Australian Government at any time in any circumstance in the future reached the view that it was in our interests to be involved in military activity, I would go out and explain through the Parliament and elsewhere the reasons why we had reached that decision.
MITCHELL:
So you haven';t begun that yet?
PRIME MINISTER:
The processes of persuading people? No, because we haven';t made a decision to be involved. What we have done is to explain the threat and to argue, as I continue to do, that that threat can';t be ignored. It won';t go away of its own volition. At the moment we very strongly support what the Americans and the British are trying to do through the UN and I hope that is successful. But it';s only if that fails and some kind of military activity by some people is unavoidable, and if further to that the Australian Government were to form the view that we should be involved in some way, would we be in the business of talking about what you have just asked. The point I want to make is that I don';t think it helps the possible achievement of a peaceful resolution of this issue to be all the time hypothesising about what might happen if we fail in that attempt. And I';m surprised that people who are so overtly committed to a peaceful resolution of this issue should be jumping immediately to the less palatable scenario.
MITCHELL:
Such as who?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I mean church groups and others. Right at the moment everybody wants to avoid a military conflict. I don';t want Australian forces involved in any military conflict anywhere if that can be avoided. And I don';t think it really helps the attempts of the British and the Americans, and after all if it hadn';t of been for the Americans, this thing would not be back in the lap of the United Nations. The United Nations didn';t of its own spontaneous volition grab hold of this issue and say, we';ve got to address it. It was President Bush';s speech on the 12th of September that focussed the mind of the Security Council.
MITCHELL:
But we do have a quite extensive list of people who are coming out and speaking against any action. Former Prime Ministers like Malcolm Fraser and Bob Hawke, the RSL, some former Army officials, now the Churches. I mean do you think they';re all, in effect what they';re saying is working against the possibility of a peaceful resolution?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I don';t think… from the Government';s point of view I';m in a different position from all of them. I';m the Prime Minister. I';m in Government. Decisions have got to be taken by me in discussion with my colleagues. And certainly from my point of view, it doesn';t help. And as far as the former Prime Ministers and others are concerned, I was away when the letter was published but I read it, and I saw them saying that they wanted everything done through the UN. Well right at the moment everybody is trying to do that and I hope it';s successful.
MITCHELL:
Does this talk of civil disobedience concern you?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I hadn';t heard of that but at this stage I';m not going to respond to it because it jumps us further into a hypothetical area.
MITCHELL:
Is it correct that the United States has already made it clear to Australian officials that if action goes ahead, it wants Australian SAS troops involved in Iraq in the early stages?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well there haven';t been any discussions at any kind of political level about military involvement. There have been a lot of discussions that go on at a military level but can I just make it very clear, we haven';t received any request for Australian military involvement. I have no doubt that those sorts of components of Australian military forces are held in very high regard and our special forces are very highly regarded, I know that by the Americans. But that has arisen in the context of what they have done in Afghanistan.
MITCHELL:
So has there been a discussion at any levels about that?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well look we have military people placed in the Pentagon and I can';t answer for individual discussions that may have taken place. But I mean those people don';t make decisions. All I can say is that I have not received and the Defence Minister has not received and the Foreign Minister has not received and the Government has not received, a request from the United States Government toward military involvement.
MITCHELL:
Given the involvement of the SAS in Afghanistan, do we have the capability to involve them further?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I think the best way I can answer that without – I';m not trying to avoid it – the best way to answer that is to say that we';re not going to commit to any future military involvement anywhere in the world, beyond our capacity. People should understand this, that we have a responsibility or potential responsibilities immediately on our doorstep and I';m very conscious that we don';t overstretch ourselves, no matter what the circumstances are. And I';m not specifically talking here of Iraq. I';m talking generally and I don';t want people to understand that we';re sort of blithely contemplating committing a vast chunk of our defence forces, because we';re not.
MITCHELL:
What are those responsibilities on the doorstep which could complicate that decision?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well our region is quite unstable and you could at some time in the future have some kind of peacekeeping role to play and we need to have a capacity and a potential to do that. I';m not thinking of anything in particular that is likely to spring up but everybody is conscious of just how unstable is the region in which we live.
MITCHELL:
So that means it';s possible we could say to the United States if there is a request, well we';d love to help but we can';t.
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I will answer that question if and when that request arrives.
MITCHELL:
The Labor Party seems a little confused on its position on the war. Does that concern you? On the war – sorry, on the possibility of a conflict and its attitude to the possibility of a conflict.
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I always take the view that if Australia is involved in military conflict, it';s better that the decision be bipartisan. And I haven';t sought particularly to exploit any divisions within the Labor Party. When people spoke out in different ways inside the Labor Party, I don';t think you found too many of my people having a go at it. And I don';t intend to. This is a very serious issue and to the extent that it is possible, I would like to take the Labor Party with me. That';s more important to me than some short-term political advantage in seeing division inside Labor Party ranks.
MITCHELL:
Well they';ve certainly focussed on a war tax and said no war tax.
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I';m not quite sure what they';re saying on that hypothetical issue. Bob McMullan said one thing and Simon Crean said another which was initially reported as meaning x, but then some people in x, they said it was x minus y. So I';m not quite sure but that is hypothetical. But as far as the thing is concerned right at the moment, my understanding is that the Labor Party agrees with us that a new Security Council resolution or resolutions is desirable, and certainly if we can continue to have a similar view on this difficult issue, that is in the country';s interests and I put a greater premium on securing bipartisan support than I do on taking some short term political advantage of division in Labor Party ranks.
MITCHELL:
There has in fairness been a bit of contradiction in the Government';s side as well. We have Senator Hill openly discussing the need for a war tax and since then both you and the Treasurer have been trying to hose it down.
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I saw the interview Senator Hill gave. I don';t think… he spoke in his own way. Everybody expresses these things differently but the Government';s position very simply is that it';s ludicrous to be talking about it at the moment. There is no war and we';d like to avoid one.
MITCHELL:
You have popular support according to the latest poll today. Ahead everywhere except Victoria and in Victoria you';re equal. Do you think you have the support of the Australian people in the way this has been handled?
PRIME MINISTER:
People wish it weren';t there. So do I. So do you. People don';t like the idea of any possibility of further military conflicts and I share that sentiment. People understand that the issue won';t go away and I find as I talk about it, people nod their heads on that. But it';s quite a difficult issue because nobody wants military conflict and I can understand that and it is a country that is not near to Australia. A lot of people say that';s a long way away from Australia. That';s a fair question. My reply to that is that the nature of the world is that you don';t need to have a country right on your doorstep for it to cause a difficulty that might cause damage in time to your own country, and the history of the world has indicated that very strongly. But people are obviously not wanting any kind of military conflict and I share that sentiment. But they do increasingly understand that the issue has got to be addressed and when I talk around the community, people do understand that. As to whether people support or don';t support a particular position, I don';t really know. In the end on these international issues you';ve got to do what you think is right, but you';ve got to do it in a measured, sensible way and try as far as possible to take the rest of the Australian community with you.
MITCHELL:
So you do what';s right, even if it';s unpopular.
PRIME MINISTER:
On an issue affecting national security, you have to do what you believe is right.
MITCHELL:
How close are we to a decision do you believe? How soon will we need to decide?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well if the United Nations passes a new tough resolution, as I believe it should, then the answer to that question will depend very much on how Iraq reacts. The ideal situation as I seeit would be for the weapons inspections not to take place until there is a new resolution and the new resolution would be a fail safe one, one that can';t be trifled with. And then depending on how Iraq reacts to that, I might be able to answer the question.
MITCHELL:
Just finally, but we';ll need to have a break and we';ll move on to some other issues but I mentioned in the polls you';re very well ahead at the moment, a bloke would be silly to even consider retirement, wouldn';t he?
PRIME MINISTER:
I don';t have anything further to say on that subject.
MITCHELL:
A break and then more from the Prime Minister.
[ad break]
MITCHELL:
The Prime Minister is with me. A quick call and then some other issues I want to raise other than Iraq. Pat, go ahead please.
Caller:
Hello Neil. Mr Howard, I';d like to know how come our troops were called to fight in Afghanistan and hunting for Bin Laden, and then overnight a switch to Iraq and Saddam Hussein?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well they haven';t been overnight switched to Iraq and Saddam Hussein. We haven';t deployed any forces against Iraq. In recent times we';ve had some naval vessels in the Gulf as part of the enforcement of the UN sanctions imposed some ten or eleven years ago, but there have been no additional forces committed. And the question of whether we commit forces in the future is, as I';ve explained earlier, hypothetical at this stage and I hope the need for making a decision of that nature does not arise.
MITCHELL:
You have said in the past that action was probable. Do you still think that';s the case?
PRIME MINISTER:
I haven';t altered that view, no.
MITCHELL:
We';ll move on to some other issues. Thanks Pat for calling. Do you think the housing market is overheated?
PRIME MINISTER:
I think it';s very strong. Some of the talk about a doomsday scenario and the bubble bursting has been exaggerated because when you look at the earnings figures of people and the price of housing, particularly in the big cities, and sure the price of housing has gone up but so has people';s earning capacity. And you';ve got to remember that interest rates are much lower now.
MITCHELL:
So you don';t think if they go up, you don';t think we';re in a dangerous situation with the housing market?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I don';t want to speculate about what might happen to interest rates but I think people are getting a little overexcited. But I do caution all financial institutions against taking any margin risks as far as lending is concerned. This is not a time to be erring on the side of leniency with people who are clearly going to have an incapacity to repay loans if the interest rate tide turns a little bit against them.
MITCHELL:
The banks might be a bit generous, do you think?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well they argue they';re not. APRA issued a warning. I can only make the general comment that this is not a time for lending institutions to be taking huge risks with repayment possibilities. But equally I think we';ve got to be careful we don';t sort of jump from one doomsday scenario to another because we';ve had a decline in the equity markets. Not as much in Australia as around the world. You shouldn';t assume that';s going to happen to the property market.
MITCHELL:
I guess it must be related – the drought. Obviously a very serious issue. What is the potential this can do to the country?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well it can do a lot to cut our national income. It';s a very tragic situation for people in a double way. There';s the drought and on top of that, if there weren';t a drought many of the farmers would be earning terrific prices for things like wool and wheat because the prices around the world for a change are up. And that';s partly due to the fact that there';s a severe shortage of wheat because of drought in other parts of the world. Anybody who has had rain on the land now and they';re in something like wheat has got a good outlook. People who haven';t of course have got the problem of a drought and on top of that, the frustration of realising that if they did have a bit of rain, they';d be getting exceptionally good prices.
MITCHELL:
Well are we getting closer to the need for significant Government aid and Government action?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well that';s already happening at both levels, I';ll leave it to the State Premiers to talk about what the states are doing. But federally we have the exceptional circumstances arrangements and we';ve already accepted exceptional circumstances in a number of areas and the other important thing the Federal Government has done, perhaps it hasn';t received any credit for, are the farm management bonds. Now this is an arrangement that';s involved $2 billion of farmers income and what happens is in a good year you put it into these deposits which are interest bearing before you pay tax, and in a bad year you pull it out to live on and you pay a much lower rate of tax on it and that deposit fund now has got about $2 billion and I think it';s probably involved the tax incentive of several hundred million dollars.
MITCHELL:
Well speaking of bonds, Dick Pratt has suggested the Government get into water bonds to get superannuation money for a finance and national pipeline, a water pipeline.
PRIME MINISTER:
I have talked to Dick about that.
MITCHELL:
Got merit?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I';ve asked for a very comprehensive examination to be made inside the government of possibilities in a lot of these areas. Some of those things obviously are not feasible, other';s might be and I don';t dismiss for a moment a lot of things that have been put forward by people like Dick Pratt at the present time in relation to water. In the past we';ve looked at these things and regarded them as pie in the sky and unachievable, it never hurts to revisit them because scientific and other advances could give you a different answer.
MITCHELL:
The gun buy back, now the survey reported in the Australian this week showing that since the gun buy back, over which you copped an enormous amount of criticism, murders by firearms are down significantly and I think particularly mass murders, in this state at least there hasn';t been one.
PRIME MINISTER:
Terrific, terrific research. Really very encouraging. This is completely independent research, carried out by an Australian but in an American university and it shows quite strongly that the buy back of 661,000 firearms has run parallel, I won';t state it any more strongly than that, but parallel with a decline in the homicide rate, and particularly a decline in the mass murder rate. What it does tell the community is that governments, and I give state governments credit here as well, get together across the political divide and of something strong, you can get results. Can I say the same thing is tentatively happening, or may be happening, in relation to heroin overdoses, we';ve been criticised for our Tough on Drugs campaign, people particularly here in Victoria say Howard';s out of touch, he doesn';t understand, you';ve got to relax the laws, etc, you';ve got to take a different approach, there has been a decline in heroin deaths in Victoria and elsewhere. Our measures are making a contribution that, I';m not saying it';s the only reason.
MITCHELL:
Do you reckon it';s permanent?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I hope it is, all I can report, I hope in a reasonable manner, is the available evidence and in both of those areas, guns and heroin, it appears that our tough stance has had an effect.
MITCHELL:
A couple of quick things Prime Minister, the Ansett ticket tax, is it correct we'll have that for another two years?
PRIME MINISTER:
We could but I';m not sure about that, we have paid $329 million to the administrator and we';ve collected only about a hundred and something. So, there's still a way to go.
MITCHELL:
Still on the airlines, I think Dr Chong's Singapore airlines said a third airline is a viable option for this country. Is it?
PRIME MINISTER:
That's a matter for the market. I'm not going to say yes or no to that. If people want to have a go and providing they meet the safety requirements and all the other regulatory requirements, good luck to them.
MITCHELL:
Quite happy to be foreign owned?
PRIME MINISTER:
I don't mind that, no.
MITCHELL:
The Medibank Private seems to be in deep trouble, fees going up, I would suggest that crisis will continue. Do you still... are you likely to sell it?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, we're having a scoping study done of that, we haven't made a decision to sell it. It's got some difficulty whether it's deep trouble, I'm not sure that I would…
MITCHELL:
[Inaudible] fees are going up…
PRIME MINISTER:
…viable, I think it's very viable and very strong. Well yes, they made some bad investments decisions apparently. It was more to do with that than the administration of the medical side of it. It's still a good deal, private health insurance. I mean, 30% tax rebate gives you options and gives you protection and support that you don't get without it. I would earnestly encourage people to stay with their private health insurance; it is a very good deal.
MITCHELL:
The inquiry into SAS actions in Timor, suggestions that the SAS could have been involved in the illegal action and execution. Do you have any further information?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, the only information I have is really what's in the public domain because it is an ongoing inquiry and you have to be careful about what you say about these things. But apparently there were 19 allegations made in relation to action by Interfet forces. Some 12 of those have been investigated already and found to have no substance. Investigations in relation to the other six or seven are still under way. Now, there's been a lot of static and talk about particular incidents. I'm not going to comment on those because there is an investigation going on, but it's being done in accordance with the normal army procedures, we won't allow others a strong, effective, transparent investigation.
MITCHELL:
I'm sure you're aware that the Farmers Federation is strongly opposing the sale of Telstra, can you…?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, there's a report to that effect, whether the submission that NFF is making to the Estens' inquiry is as unequivocal in its opposition to a further sale of Telstra, I don't know. I have had some discussions with the National Farmers Federation in recent weeks and months and the indication I had from them was that they had an open mind until they saw the outcome of the inquiry. But in the end, we'll make a decision based on our assessment that whether we as a Government think that services in the bush are up to scratch. We'll talk to the NFF - obviously it's a body I respect a lot - but in the end, we'll make an independent decision based on our own assessment after we get the Estens' inquiry report.
MITCHELL:
But there really is no doubt that Telstra will be sold?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, it's…you've got to get services up to scratch in the bush first…
MITCHELL:
[Inaudible]?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, I would hope that we get services up to scratch in the bush. I think they've improved a lot. I mean, I find when I go around the country people say things have got better. Look in the long run Neil, it doesn't make sense for something to be half Government owned and half privately owned. But we're not going to go any further to resolve that long run anomaly, if I can put it that way, until we're satisfied that services in the bush are up to scratch.
MITCHELL:
The building unions did a deal here in Victoria, which was ratified yesterday, 36-hour week, a pretty generous deal. Does that concern you, nationally?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, I would be concerned about any deal that's not properly based on productivity games. I mean, I am not against individual bargaining. In fact I'm very strongly in favour of it, but it's got to be based on productivity games. Now, in some circumstances a deal like that could deliver productivity game. If it doesn't, then it's not a good precedent and it could have negative implications around the country, it all depends on whether there's any productivity going out of it.
MITCHELL:
I thank you for your time. We're heading into Victorian Election campaign fairly soon. Will we see more of you in Victoria for a campaign…?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well, I'm always in Victoria…
MITCHELL:
[Inaudible] campaign…
PRIME MINISTER:
But I…Robert Doyle has made it very plain that he would like for me to be involved in the campaign and I'm very happy to help in any way I can. I think he's done a very good job since he became Opposition Leader and I'd like to help him.
MITCHELL:
Warriors and the Roosters, what does that mean?
PRIME MINISTER:
I think Eastern Suburbs namely the Roosters will win. I'll be there on Sunday night and it's the other shoe as far as the football finals are concerned.
MITCHELL:
Thank you very much for your time.
PRIME MINISTER:
Thank you.
[ends]