PM Transcripts

KERRY O';BRIEN:
John Howard you';ve said this is an open ended commitment in terms of how long Australian troops might be gone. Is it also open ended in terms of what the SAS contingent in particular might be asked to do?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well they will be asked to be involved in all the things that other special forces involved will be asked to do. But they will do it under an Australian command, Brigadier Ken Gillespie will be the overall commander of the Australian operation. They will of course work closely with the Americans but everything that is done will be done with Australian authority and in accordance with Australian rules of engagement but we';ll be a full participant in certainly the land operation. That is how it should be.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
In last night';s phone call did President Bush say why he was asking Australia to activate its pledge at this particular time?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well he didn';t put it in those terms. He put it in terms of we';ve had great success so far with the bombing operation and we';re now moving into the next phase. That was the context in which it';s put and bear in mind there';s been a lot of discussion going on between our military and the people at the Pentagon. I think it';s reached a stage where it';s necessary to have people who might be involved in land operations sent to various places closer to Afghanistan.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
Has President Bush spelt out to you exactly what has to be achieved before armed forces can come home? In other words what are the goals that might be achieved that then constitute an end game, a successful end to the campaign?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well the, the goals are really the goals that he spelt out to the American Congress and he';s spelt out in many speeches and that is really the, the capture or otherwise elimination of Bin Laden and the destruction of the terrorist cells and an assurance that not only the terrorist cells there but in other parts of the world have also been neutralised. That';s the objective. The objective is not the subjugation of the people of Afghanistan. It';s very important that we not make inaccurate comparisons with say the Soviet Union';s military operation in Afghanistan. That was an attempt to subjugate a nation. That';s not involved here. We don';t have a quarrel with the people of Afghanistan. We have a quarrel with the Taliban and most particularly their harboring and relieving a group of terrorists.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
But in acknowledging that it could go beyond Afghanistan are you comfortable at the prospect of Australian troops, Australian resources being committed to other targets, other terrorist targets and potentially other countries in the region?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well Kerry at this stage the target is the terrorists in Afghanistan. We take one task, one goal at a time and….
KERRY O';BRIEN:
But it is open ended beyond that….
PRIME MINISTER:
No but it';s not open ended in the sense that we don';t have to approve each operation involving Australian forces. It';s open ended in the sense that we haven';t said to the Americans if this is not over in three months we';re coming home. We';re not saying that. But clearly if the Americans come to us and say look we';ve discovered we need to mount an operation somewhere else in the world then we have a look at that and we make our own decision whether we';re going to be involved in it.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
But in that context when President Bush says as he did the other day that the conflict even in Afghanistan might take a year to two years presumably if the caravan, the campaign rolls on you are talking potentially about several years of Australian troop involvement
PRIME MINISTER:
Well that is theoretically possible. Whether that turns out in practice to be the case I don';t know. I mean we';ve had forces in East Timor now for two years. Admittedly they';re in very much a peace keeping role under a United Nations flag. But none of these operations and of course those two operations are very different, are achieved easily, but the goal here is limited. It';s difficult but it';s limited and it';s not a conventional attempt to invade another country in the sense of say the Russians in Afghanistan or years ago other countries in Afghanistan.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
But looking in terms of the resources that you have now committed and it is as you say a pretty open ended commitment in that we don';t know when it might end. Can we afford to keep these resources in that region indefinitely?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well Kerry I don';t think it will be….
KERRY O';BRIEN:
I don';t mean in money terms I mean in terms of the capacity of the defence force.
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I believe we can keep them there for a significant period of time and we wouldn';t have made this commitment if we felt it made an unreasonable demand. You use the word indefinitely. I suppose we can engage in semantics. They could be there for a while. I don';t think it will be indefinite but it could be a while. Now if there';s a difference well there is a difference in this case.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
Commodore Leigh Cordner the former head of the Australian Navy Strategic Policy Branch said today that the defence force was near exhaustion. Given that this is a substantially bigger force than the one you originally offered is there a danger that you might over stretch resources?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I don';t accept they';re near exhaustion. The current leaders of the defence force have told me today that this is well within the capability of the Australian Defence Force. It';s about 550 men greater than the 1,000 we originally contemplated. It';s significantly fewer ground troops than we committed to East Timor and indeed we have in East Timor at the present time. So whilst it is significant, it';s anything but token. It';s real and it will be valuable to the Americans. Very valuable. I don';t think it will dangerously stretch our defence forces. That is the advice I have and in the end I must rely on professional advice. I am not a soldier myself. I rely on professional advice.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
And can you rule out that Australia';s contribution might expand?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I wouldn';t expect that it would but I';m not going to, for the most obvious of practical reasons rule that out.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
And while all that is going on how long can you sustain the heavy naval involvement patrolling the northern seas around Australia to stop asylum seekers?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well once again that';s been discussed and our advice is that that can be maintained. That';s very important work. A lot of people see that going very directly to the integrity of our borders and a lot of people feel very strongly that that is a task that ought to be carried out by the Royal Australian Navy.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
Is there a possibility in terms of our relationship with Indonesia that there might be new strains around the corner given President Megawati';s comments making it clear she does not support the air attacks on Afghanistan even though she does say that terrorism must be fought and punished?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I hope not Kerry but in the end our relationship with Indonesia has got to be governed by our national interest as our relationship with any country must be and our national interest relies in working with the Americans because the terrorist threat is as much a threat to Australia as it is to the United States and we would be very foolish to imagine that this is America';s fight alone.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
If we can move onto the economy Prime Minister and referring to today';s figures that were released by the Treasurer. The treasury forecast is for a budget surplus, sorry the treasury forecast at this time going into the last election said that there would be a budget surplus for this year of $10 billion dollars. You';ve just about spent the lot haven';t you?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well that figure has been depleted by spending. Very necessary spending like extra defence spending, extra road spending, cutting petrol excise. And every time I hear Mr. Beazley attack that I ask Mr. Beazley will you wind back the extra defence spending? Will you cancel the road spending? Will you re-institute automatic half-yearly indexation of petrol excise? I mean you can';t have it both ways. You can';t call for these things to be done and then lament the fact that we';ve had to spend the money to do them. All of them have been very worthwhile things and all of them I support to the hilt and if I had my time over again I';d do them exactly the same way.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
Treasury';s growth forecast for this financial year of 3% is just enough to keep you in surplus. If that growth slows as some market forecasters are suggesting that it will you';d either have to cut spending, increase taxes or go into deficit wouldn';t you?
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I can only rely on the estimates we get and the estimates are that we will grow and I';m not going to get into a hypothetical situation. I….
KERRY O';BRIEN:
Although those estimates have been changed quite consistently over time.
PRIME MINISTER:
Well I didn';t change them. They';re the treasury estimates.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
No, no, no. What I';m saying is treasury forecasts do tend to change don';t they? They';re not set in stone.
PRIME MINISTER:
Well they often change, they often change in either direction. I';ve known treasury forecasts to end up being more benign. I mean we ended up with a larger budget surplus last year than forecast at budget time and indeed forecast at the time of the mid-year economic review last year. So it can go in either direction and that';s why it';s really silly of me to try and hypothesise about what might happen. As of now that';s treasury';s forecast. The independent assessment by the Treasury Secretary and the Department of Finance will come out tomorrow and that is the basis on which we go to the election.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
In any event there';s not much room even on the face of the slender surplus that you now have it doesn';t leave much room for income tax cuts over the next couple of years does it.
PRIME MINISTER:
No there is not a lot of room for income tax cuts this year or next year. There';s not much room for additional spending on other things either but you';ve got to bear in mind that there';s no point in piling up surpluses just for the sake thereof particularly when we';ve reduced our national debt by such a dramatic amount. I mean our debt to GDP ratio is one of the lowest in the western world. It';s five and a half per cent of GDP against an OECD average of about 40%. So our debt position is terrific. Therefore there';s every justification for spending some of the surplus on worthwhile investment such as defence and roads and the environment and cutting petrol excise and getting rid of automatic indexation and I wait with interest any declarations by the Labor party that they will roll back those decisions.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
And very briefly Mr. Howard on the apparent conflict between the ABC board and its Managing Director. Your Minister for the ABC Senator Alston has once again thrown his support behind Mr. Shier. I don';t mean against the board but he has expressed support for Mr. Shier. Do you endorse that support?
PRIME MINISTER:
Senator Alston speaks for the government in relation to these matters.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
So you think Mr. Shier….
PRIME MINISTER:
I think everything Senator Alston, I think everything Senator Alston has said has been quite reasonable.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
So Mr.Shier is doing a good job….
PRIME MINISTER:
Well my experience is that he is doing a good job. I think the board';s doing a good job. I think you';re doing a good job too Kerry.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
The board doesn';t seem to be agreeing with you on Mr. Shier.
PRIME MINISTER:
Well look that';s a matter for the board Kerry. Look you can';t have it both ways. You can';t say leave the ABC alone let it run its own affairs and then every time there';s a story about it you try and drag the Prime Minister in to it.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
Not everytime. Not everytime.
PRIME MINISTER:
I';m leaving this to the board. I';ve every confidence in Donald MacDonald as Chairman. He';s a first class Chairman doing a great job and I';m quite sure the board will handle this. They appointed Mr. Shier. I leave it all to them.
KERRY O';BRIEN:
John Howard thanks for talking with us.
[ends]